{
  "generated_at": "2026-07-21T17:28:56.208Z",
  "narrative_by_year": {
    "2021": "Recovery and firming. Tampa molten opened near $69/LT and climbed to $195 by mid-year, settling Q4 at $183/LT (USGS MCS2022). Seaborne solid sulphur tracked the rally: ME producer OSPs stepped from ~$101 FOB in January to $183 in March and into the low $190s/$220s by October; Argus sample prints put Vancouver and US Gulf near $184–194 and China granular near $235–245 CFR by late September. Tight Middle East availability, rising freights, and phosphate demand supported the move after the soft 2020 trough.",
    "2022": "Cycle peak and crash. Tampa opened ~$282/LT, peaked at $481/LT in early April (USGS MCS2023; Argus 2Q sample), eased to $352 by mid-July, then collapsed to $90/LT in Q4. Seaborne solid sulphur hit multi-year highs in May–June (Vancouver $476–480 FOB, ME spot $480–490 / June avg ~$485, US Gulf spot ~$470; China all-forms band into the $500s) before China phosphate export curbs and demand destruction drove ME FOB to ~$71 by early August and China CFR to $55–140 by early September (BC Insight/Argus open reprints).",
    "2023": "Soft, surplus market. Tampa began at $90/LT, briefly firmed to $130 mid-January, then slumped to $55 mid-July before Q4 settled at $102/LT (USGS MCS2024). ME FOB averages drifted from ~$155 in January toward ~$95 by April with May Qatar QSP at $86; Vancouver midpoint printed $72 on 14 Dec (Argus open news) after a Q4 fade. High China port stocks, phosphate export restrictions, and ME capacity ramp kept seaborne values compressed into year-end (Argus Nov outlook bands Vancouver ~$84–86 and China CFR $40–112).",
    "2024": "Still soft early, then gradual firming into Q4. Tampa opened at $69/LT, rose to $81 (March/Q2), eased to $76 early July, then jumped to $116 in Q4 (USGS MCS2025). US Gulf spot sat in the $60s–$75 early year and ~$100–110 by late August (BC Insight); Vancouver averaged only $78 Jan–Jul before climbing toward CRU’s ~$275 Q4 FOB narrative. China CFR recovered from upper-$90s post-LNY toward ~$145 by late summer as ME spot moved into the $120s and Sep QSP hit $125.",
    "2025": "Structural tightening and sharp reprice. CRU estimates a ~1.9 Mt global deficit. Tampa climbed from a $116 year-open / $165 Q1 settlement through USGS markers of $270 (early April), $252 (early July), and $310 (early October). Vancouver FOB averaged $238 Jan–Jul (triple 2024’s $78), printed $305–310 in early October, and ended the year near $485–495; ME spot finished ~$505–525 FOB with China CFR into the low $520s (BC Insight/CRU open articles; Argus open news and public samples).",
    "2026": "Hormuz logistics shock on an already tight balance (through July). Tampa Q1 ~$496/LT DEL, Q2 $655, Q3 record $705/LT DEL (Argus open news). ME OSPs stepped from ~$510–520 in January to $740–765 in May (ChemNet/BC Insight); Platts (Hellenic reprint) assessed Vancouver $1,100 and ME (ex-Iran) $995–1,000 FOB on 2 Jun; US Gulf granular export spot reached $1,100–1,150 FOB by 9 Jul. Affordability risk for phosphates is the main downside if Hormuz normalizes or demand curtails."
  }
}