US Gulf liquid sulfur contracts opened 2021 far above mid-2020 lows as phosphate fertilizer demand recovered from pandemic disruption. BC Insight and Argus-linked commentary later put early-January Tampa near $83 per long ton CFR versus about $54 a year earlier, marking the start of a multi-quarter firming cycle into mid-2021. The trends piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/07/31/ammonia-and-sulphur-market-trends/.
USGS MCS 2022 recorded Tampa beginning 2021 near about $69 per long ton, then moving higher as supply issues and demand recovery interacted. The $83 BC Insight early-January print and the $69 USGS year-open are two source readings of a still-modest contract, far above $54, far below mid-June $192 and 2022's $481. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. Treat $69 as the USGS anchor and $83 as the trade-press early-January print. Both describe a market leaving 2020, not yet in a spike.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. Port of Vancouver sulphur would finish 2021 at 2.29 million tonnes, down 14 percent from 2.65 million in 2020, the trough of the decade's volume path. Early-January $83 Tampa does not fill a Pacific stem year. Forming plants and unit trains need multi-month visibility. 2022's 22 percent rebound is when later $282-$481 Tampa and $478 FOB filled it.
China 2020 imports plunged about 3 million tonnes. Pandemic refining cuts constrained recovered sulfur even as phosphate began to firm. Early-2021 $83 Tampa is that mismatch starting to price: demand healing, supply still snug. USGS language that high 2021 prices reflected supply issues rather than a permanent demand boom starts here.
Import-source statistics for 2017-20 already showed Canada at about 73 percent of US elemental sulfur imports. Molten rail from Alberta into US phosphate plants delivered into this $83 world. Formed tonnes to Vancouver waited on FOB. Two doors, one $83 contract. Heartland's June tank and Argus's forming projects are the inland response that January had not yet completed.
DAP Morocco would reach $584 FOB by mid-year, Brazil MAP $714 CFR. TFI's 198 percent March-to-March would measure the twelve months from this neighbourhood to $481. January 2021 is the first print of that climb. October 15 inspections, February 2022 war, and July 2022 quota are later shocks. January has none of them. It has phosphate recovery and a still-constrained recovered-sulfur list.
World about 80 million tonnes, Canada about 4.9 million, US about 8.1 million, MCS 2022, is the production backdrop. Unit value would average $92.30 for the year, from $24.60 in 2020. $83 in January is a contract on the way to that average, not the average itself.
Figures follow BC Insight, Argus, and USGS. Early-January Tampa near $83 versus $54 a year earlier is the 2021 open, the start of the recovery-and-firming year that set up 2022's spike.