Chinese trade press summarized early-2021 market conditions with import dependence still near 50 percent even as domestic recovered sulfur rose. Import CFR prices later tracked from about $141 per tonne early in the year toward $281 per tonne by year-end, with Middle East-Yangtze freight climbing from roughly $27 per tonne toward peaks near $69 per tonne. The item is at https://www.chemnews.com.cn/c/2022-01-18/691210.shtml.
December's about $310 CFR in the same file is a further step. Yn2,200 domestic solid and Zhenjiang stock at 0.52 million tonnes from 1.09 million are the year-end tightness prints. Early-2021 near-50-percent import dependence is why those prints still pulled seaborne tonnes. Argus's 40 percent Chinese production-growth call toward 2025 is why the dependence was expected to ease as a growth story, not as a 2021 fact.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A 50 percent Chinese import door is the Pacific bid for Canadian granules when freight and FOB align. 2020's about 3 million tonne import plunge showed the door can slam. Early-2021 $141 CFR is the cheap side of the recovery. Late-2021 $281-$310 is the expensive side. Vancouver's 2.29 million tonne down year sat in the middle, programmed before the expensive side fully arrived.
Middle East-Yangtze freight from $27 toward $69 is the ocean layer on Gulf origins. The 23 September Argus sample's $44-46 per tonne large-vessel Middle East-South China freight sits inside that climb. Canadian Pacific stems pay a different ocean bill. They avoid Hormuz. They still need a Port Moody berth. Two freights, one 50 percent import door.
Tampa from about $69 USGS open toward $192 mid-June and $183 fourth quarter is the Florida rhyme of this CFR climb. TFI's later 198 percent March-to-March is the US input-cost rhyme. Three geographies, one 2021 firming.
Changdongbei and four near-term projects more than 2 million tonnes a year are the domestic recovered-sulfur additions that compete with that 50 percent import share over five years. March 2021 is still 50 percent. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 50 percent, $141-to-$281 CFR, and $27-to-$69 freight figures are China Chemical Information Weekly.
October 15 inspections would then reshape the phosphate side of that import door. March is still a dependence number, not a quota number.
Figures follow China Chemical Information Weekly. Near-50-percent Chinese import dependence is the 2021 structural-demand chapter under a climbing CFR.