Argus and BC Insight supply tables for 2021 highlighted the Al Fadhili gas project ramp as a major Middle East incremental sulfur source, expected to add more than 1 million tonnes a year as Gulf sour-gas and refining projects commissioned. The Middle East remained the largest incremental seaborne supplier heading into the 2022 price spike. The trends piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/07/31/ammonia-and-sulphur-market-trends/.
More than 1 million tonnes a year is a world-scale increment from sour-gas Claus, not a sulfur-price plant. Al Fadhili is the largest named slice of Argus's just-over-3-million-tonne 2021 capacity forecast, beside Barzan about 800,000 tonnes a year and Al Zour toward early 2022. COVID delays affected some startups. The Gulf still swung seaborne supply.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A million-plus tonnes a year of Saudi granules is the competing origin into China, India, and Morocco. Canadian 4.9 million tonne 2021 recovered book and 2.29 million tonne harbour year are the Pacific counterpart. Two regions. When Al Fadhili tonnes meet 15 October Chinese inspections, demand-side policy can still firm FOB. When they meet July 2022's quota, they populate a crash. April 2021 is the ramp forecast before both dates.
USGS later flagged Middle East refining upgrades to lift sulfur supply from 2025, a different vintage of Gulf increment. Al Fadhili is the 2021 sour-gas vintage. Saudi stock draws of about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter from 2023 are a third vintage, storage-driven. Three Saudi supply stories. April 2021 is the first.
Tampa climbing toward $192 by mid-June shows the increment had not produced a surplus by then. China 2020 import plunge of about 3 million tonnes is the hole a 1 million tonne ramp only partly fills, especially with delays. Price still trebled year on year.
May 2022 QSP $460 and UAE/Kuwait $470, Argus sample, is this incremental Gulf solid priced at the spike. August QSP $77 is the crash. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The more-than-1-million-tonnes-a-year figure is Argus via BC Insight.
World about 80 million tonnes in 2021, then about 82 million in 2022, is the planet. Unchanged-to-slightly-higher global output plus a 1 million tonne Saudi ramp did not prevent $481 Tampa. Logistics and phosphate policy did that. They also unmade it.
Figures follow Argus. Al Fadhili's more than 1 million tonnes a year is the 2021 Saudi supply chapter under a still-firming Tampa.