Mid-2021 Argus supply commentary expected just over 3 million tonnes of new sulfur capacity in 2021, concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait and supplemented by Chinese projects. COVID delays affected some Middle East startups, but the Gulf remained the swing incremental seaborne supplier. The trends piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/07/31/ammonia-and-sulphur-market-trends/.
Al Fadhili's more than 1 million tonnes a year ramp is the Saudi slice. Barzan's about 800,000 tonnes a year, delayed into 2021, is the Qatari slice. Al Zour commissioning toward early 2022 is the Kuwaiti slice. Four Chinese near-term projects more than 2 million tonnes a year sit on a longer 2025 clock. Just over 3 million tonnes in 2021 is the Gulf-heavy increment.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Incremental Gulf solid is the competing origin into China, India, and Morocco. Canadian forming projects noted in the same Argus commentary are the Pacific counterpart: more granules from existing Alberta recovery, not new Claus. Two supply stories. World output about 80 million tonnes in 2021, MCS 2022, is the planet these 3 million tonnes sit on.
Tampa about $192 in mid-June shows the increment had not produced a surplus by mid-year. China 2020 import plunge of about 3 million tonnes and pandemic refining cuts had tightened availability. 3 million tonnes of new capacity is the same order of magnitude as the 2020 Chinese import hole. Timing and COVID delays meant the hole was not filled on the day the capacity was forecast. Price still trebled year on year.
October 15 inspections would then pull non-Chinese phosphate to restock sulfur, firming FOB even as Gulf capacity ramped. 2022's $481 peak and July crash would show demand-side policy beating supply-side tonnes, then destroying them. May 2021 is the capacity forecast before those policy dates.
UAE production later near 6.0 million tonnes in 2022, USGS, is the installed Gulf book these ramps add to. Canadian 4.9 million tonnes is the other recovered book. Vancouver 2.29 million tonnes is the Pacific solid slice. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The just-over-3-million-tonne figure is Argus via BC Insight.
Barzan restart risk in 2026 conflict reporting, a fatal explosion during restart, is a later footnote on the same Qatari node. May 2021 is COVID delay, not conflict damage.
Figures follow Argus. More than 3 million tonnes of 2021 capacity additions is the Gulf-supply chapter under a still-firm mid-year Tampa.