In USDA fertilizer supply-chain comments, The Fertilizer Institute stated sulfur prices rose 198 percent between March 2021 and March 2022 as a critical ammoniated-phosphate input cost. The figure captures the 2021-22 fertilizer cost shock that linked Gulf liquid sulfur, phosphates, and farm input inflation. The PDF is at https://www.tfi.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/the_fertilizer_institute_comments_final_usda_rfi.pdf.
This 15 July 2021 desk date sits in the middle of that twelve-month window. Mid-June Tampa about $192 per long ton versus about $83 in early January and $54 a year earlier, BC Insight, is the first-half climb. March 2022 heading to $481 Tampa in early April is the second half of the 198 percent. July 2021 is the midpoint, not the TFI filing date. The USDA comments are a 2022-process document. The 198 percent figure is filed here as the cost-shock that was already underway by mid-2021.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian molten rail into US phosphate plants is the import book TFI members buy. USGS about 73 percent Canadian share of US elemental imports for 2017-20 is that book. A 198 percent sulfur cost is a Tampa and Gulf acid-plant cost and a Vancouver FOB netback. Mid-2021 about $192 Tampa was already a multiple of 2020's $54. Forming plants were starting to see remelt economics. The harbour's 2.29 million tonne down year shows stems still lagged.
DAP Morocco near $584 per tonne FOB, up 95 percent year on year, and Brazil MAP near $714 CFR, up 125 percent, in the same mid-2021 sulphur reviews, are the phosphate-price counterpart. Eight- to nine-year phosphate highs underpinned the sulfur rally. TFI's 198 percent is the US input-cost version. Two geographies, one cost shock.
October 15 NDRC inspections are still three months ahead. Russia's invasion is seven months ahead. July 2021's 198 percent path is pandemic-recovery supply tightness plus phosphate restocking, not yet war, not yet quota. USGS language about supply issues rather than a permanent demand boom fits this midpoint.
Mosaic's 2022 utilization cuts are the later demand response to this cost shock plus the July 2022 quota. Affordability would break. July 2021 is when affordability was still stretching, not broken. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 198 percent figure is TFI's submitted number.
Heartland's 30 June tank and Argus's forming-project note are the Canadian logistics response to a market that was starting to pay. TFI members paying 198 percent more are the US demand side of the same market.
Figures follow TFI. Sulfur plus 198 percent March 2021 to March 2022 is the US phosphate-input chapter, already in motion by mid-2021.