Argus analysis highlighted a roughly 3 million tonne year-on-year plunge in Chinese sulfur imports during 2020, accompanied by lower domestic stock levels. Into 2021 China remained the world's largest sulfur importer, but rising domestic recovered sulfur and planned projects of more than 2 million tonnes a year were already expected to structurally reduce import intensity toward 2025. The trends piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/07/31/ammonia-and-sulphur-market-trends/.
A 3 million tonne import drop is a seaborne event. Vancouver's 2020 sulphur of 2.65 million tonnes falling to 2.29 million in 2021 is the Canadian rhyme, smaller and lagged. Gulf origins took the larger hit of a 3 million tonne Chinese hole. 2021 mid-year tightness, Yn2,200 domestic by December and CFR $310, is stocks that had already fallen in 2020 plus a phosphate recovery. Two years, one import door.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A China that can drop 3 million tonnes of imports in a pandemic year is a swing destination, not a must-run. Canadian term offtake and other Pacific destinations are why the harbour did not drop 3 million tonnes. It dropped 0.36 million tonnes, 14 percent. Diversification already existed in 2020-21, before 2025's Brazil and Cuba headlines.
The 40 percent Chinese production-growth call toward 2025, more than 2 million tonnes a year from four projects, is the structural overlay on the 2020 cyclical plunge. October 2021 inspections would add a policy overlay. July 2022's quota would add a violent overlay. July 2021 is Argus writing the 2020 fact and the 2025 structure before those policy dates.
Import dependence still near 50 percent in early-2021 trade press is why a 3 million tonne plunge still left China as the world's largest importer. Half of a large number is still a large number. Canadian 1.2 million tonnes into China in 2023, IndexBox, is that door still open at cheap CIF. 2021's Argus note is the dampening thesis, not a closed door.
Tampa about $192 in mid-June 2021 is the Florida contract after the 2020 import plunge had already tightened availability. USGS language that high 2021 prices reflected supply issues rather than a permanent demand boom fits a market healing from a 3 million tonne Chinese hole plus pandemic refining cuts. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Zhenjiang stock from 1.09 million tonnes at start-2021 to 0.52 million at year-end is the 2021 continuation of 2020's lower stocks. Three prints: 2020 import plunge, 2021 stock draw, 2025 production growth. The seaborne bid is the residual.
Figures follow Argus. China's 2020 about 3 million tonne import plunge is the demand-hole chapter that 2021 prices were still healing from.