Argus expected Chinese sulfur production to increase by almost 40 percent out to 2025 as sour-gas and refining projects added domestic recovered tonnes. Four near-term projects alone were expected to add more than 2 million tonnes a year, permanently dampening China's long-run import growth even when phosphate runs recovered. The mid-year trends piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/07/31/ammonia-and-sulphur-market-trends/.
USGS later listed China as the largest producer near 19.4 million tonnes in 2023. A 40 percent rise toward 2025 from a 2021 base is that domestic book growing. Import dependence still near 50 percent in early-2021 trade press is why seaborne origins still mattered. The 40 percent call is why they would matter less as a growth story. 2023's 8.8 million tonne import recovery at cheap CIF, then 2024's 9.95 million, show cyclical imports can still rise. The long-run dampener is the project pipeline.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A China that adds 2 million-plus tonnes a year of domestic recovered sulfur is a smaller incremental bid for Canadian granules. It is not a zero bid. Zhenjiang stock at 0.52 million tonnes at end-2021 and CFR $310 show tightness can coexist with a 40 percent growth call. Projects take years. Stocks take months.
Changdongbei sour-gas, in the April desk note, is one named domestic addition. Sour-gas and refining projects are the mix. They compete with Middle East and Canadian granules into Yangtze phosphate plants. Origin substitution is the daily work. Structural import intensity is the five-year work.
2020's about 3 million tonne year-on-year plunge in Chinese sulfur imports, Argus, already showed cyclical import collapse. The 40 percent production call is the structural overlay on that cyclical fact. October 2021 inspections and July 2022's quota are later cyclical overlays. Three layers, one import door.
Tampa about $192 in mid-June 2021 is the Florida contract this mid-year Argus note sat beside. Vancouver 2.29 million tonnes for the year is the Pacific volume. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The almost 40 percent and more than 2 million tonnes a year figures are Argus via BC Insight.
SMM's later 2025 Chinese import year at 9.61 million tonnes, down 3.5 percent, at $274 average, is a high-price cyclical year inside the structural dampening story. 2021's 40 percent call did not predict Hormuz. It predicted more Chinese Claus. Both can be true.
Figures follow Argus. Chinese sulfur production up about 40 percent by 2025 is the 2021 supply-outlook chapter that dampens long-run Canadian incremental demand into China.