CRU's 2021 conference outlook projected strong phosphate base demand growth through 2022-23, mainly in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, before tapering toward roughly 1.0 million tonnes a year more normal growth. Sulfur demand was expected to track that phosphate expansion plus accelerating battery-metals acid use. The wrap is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2022/01/31/sulphur-sulphuric-acid-2021/.
OCP in Morocco and Ma'aden-linked phosphate in Saudi Arabia are sulfuric-acid-on-rock consumers. Strong base-demand growth there is a sulfur-unit bid that does not have to go through Tampa or Vancouver. Kazakh tonnes via Ust-Luga toward Morocco in 2023-24 would later serve that bid. Gulf granules serve it directly. Canadian Pacific is a third origin when freight aligns.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A Morocco-and-Saudi phosphate expansion is an Atlantic and Red Sea sulfur map more than a North Pacific map. Vancouver's 2.29 million tonne 2021 year was China-and-term. The CRU phosphate call is why seaborne sulfur could firm even if Chinese import intensity was structurally declining. Two phosphate geographies, one recovered byproduct.
Mid-2021 phosphate benchmarks put DAP Morocco near $584 per tonne FOB, up 95 percent year on year, and Brazil MAP near $714 per tonne CFR, up 125 percent, eight- to nine-year highs that underpinned the sulfur rally. Analysts warned new OCP, India, and Brazil phosphate capacity could pressure 2022-23 affordability. The conference growth call and the affordability warning lived in the same year. July 2022's crash showed the warning winning. IFA's 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 showed the growth call delayed.
Indonesia sulfur demand doubling by 2025 on HPAL is the second pillar in the same conference notes. US lithium acid extra 1.2 million tonnes a year by 2030 is the third. October 2021 is still phosphate-first. Battery metals are the add-on.
Tampa about $192 in mid-June, $183 in the fourth quarter, is the US contract this outlook priced against. Chinese inspections from 15 October are the policy that would pull non-Chinese phosphate, including Morocco and Saudi, to restock sulfur. The conference call and the NDRC inspections arrived in the same autumn.
Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The Morocco-and-Saudi growth path is CRU conference language, not an OCP tonne ticker.
Figures follow BC Insight. Phosphate base-demand growth in Morocco and Saudi Arabia is the 2021 demand-outlook chapter beside Chinese policy and HPAL.