Chinese authorities moved to restrict DAP and MAP exports after producer agreements with NDRC. Some ports halted fresh fertilizer deliveries and fertilizer export inspections commenced around 15 October 2021. Restrictions were expected to run into mid-2022, tightening global phosphate availability and supporting sulfur as phosphate producers outside China competed for feedstock. The review is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/11/30/price-trends-54/.
This is the first of three China-policy intensities that would define 2021-22 sulfur. January 2023 inspections would be the quieter continuation. July 2022's de-facto quota would be the violent version that crashed Vancouver about 80 percent in five weeks. 15 October 2021 is the start date. Sulfur firmed. It did not yet crash.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Constrained Chinese export DAP means less incremental Chinese sulfur burn for those tonnes and more sulfur bid from non-Chinese phosphate plants filling the gap. Brazil CFR up more than $100 through 2021, Middle East FOB $223-230 on 28 October, Tampa heading to $183 in the fourth quarter: three restock prints. Canadian granules sell into that restock when stems are programmed. 2021's 2.29 million tonne harbour year was already largely set. 2022's 22 percent rebound is when the restock pulled west.
Argus expected Chinese sulfur production to increase almost 40 percent out to 2025, four near-term projects more than 2 million tonnes a year. Domestic recovered sulfur competing with imports is the structural offset. October 2021 inspections are the cyclical overlay. Together they reduce opportunistic import intensity even when phosphate runs recover. 2020's about 3 million tonne import plunge had already shown the cyclical side.
TFI's later 198 percent sulfur cost March 2021 to March 2022 dates the twelve-month shock that includes this October policy. USGS Tampa from about $69 at the 2021 open to $282 at the 2022 open is the contract path. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 15 October inspection date is BC Insight and Argus price-trend language.
IFA's later 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 starts from this multi-year Chinese export constraint plus the 2022 quota. Phosphate trade, not Claus, set sulfur's 2021-22 range. Nickel HPAL was still a 2025 conference slide.
Zhenjiang stock falling toward 0.52 million tonnes by year-end is consistent with plants running for domestic fertilizer while export DAP was inspected. High domestic Yn2,200 and CFR $310 in December are the price of that domestic-first policy.
Figures follow BC Insight and Argus. 15 October 2021 inspections are the policy chapter that started the 2021-22 sulfur firming.