Argus assessed Middle East sulfur at $223-230 per tonne FOB on 28 October 2021 after the benchmark breached $200 per tonne earlier in the month. DAP rallies and Chinese phosphate export uncertainty drove the firming. Brazil sulfur was assessed near $245-246 per tonne CFR, up more than $100 per tonne since the start of 2021. The review is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/11/30/price-trends-54/.
Inspections commencing around 15 October are the policy date two weeks before this $223-230 print. Some ports halted fresh fertilizer deliveries. Restrictions were expected into mid-2022. Phosphate producers outside China restocked sulfur ahead of constrained Chinese DAP and MAP. Brazil CFR up more than $100 is that restock in an Atlantic delivered number.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. The 23 September Argus sample had FOB Vancouver contract indications near $184-194 per tonne for third quarter, Middle East spots near $189-191, Tampa near $195 per long ton. October's $223-230 Middle East FOB is a further step up from that September cluster. Hubs that had converged in the $180s-$190s were still climbing. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Tampa fourth quarter would settle near $183 per long ton, USGS, after mid-June about $192. Molten contracts can lag seaborne spots. $223-230 Middle East FOB in late October and $183 Tampa in the fourth quarter are not a contradiction. They are contract structure. 2022's $282 open is the Tampa catch-up.
Middle East-South China large-vessel freight around $44-46 per tonne on the September sample meant Asian buyers paid a substantial logistics premium on Gulf origins. $223-230 FOB plus $44-46 freight is a $270-neighbourhood CFR idea, consistent with December's about $310 CFR in China trade press after further firming. Canadian Pacific stems competed on open-ocean routing without a Hormuz chokepoint, but inland rail and forming still set offer volumes.
Al Fadhili, Barzan, and Al Zour ramps were adding incremental Gulf sulfur into this firming. Price still rose. Chinese policy beat incremental tonnes in October. 2023's $72 Vancouver FOB would show the reverse.
TFI's plus 198 percent March 2021 to March 2022 includes this $200-breach month. It is a US input-cost figure. $223-230 FOB is a Gulf origin figure. Both describe the same autumn.
Figures follow Argus via BC Insight. Middle East FOB $223-230 on 28 October is the Gulf-price chapter of late-2021 firming.