CRU and Argus conference outlooks for late 2021 flagged Indonesia sulfur demand roughly doubling by 2025 as HPAL nickel projects ramped, while US lithium acid demand was projected to consume an extra about 1.2 million tonnes a year of sulfur by 2030. Battery-metals acid became a second structural demand pillar beside phosphates. The conference wrap is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2022/01/31/sulphur-sulphuric-acid-2021/.
BC Insight later estimated global sulfur consumption for nickel at 3.5 million tonnes in 2023, from 1.7 million in 2020, mostly Indonesian HPAL. The late-2021 doubling-by-2025 flag is that path in a conference sentence. CRU would later put 2025 Indonesian nickel-related acid near 16 million tonnes, sulfur-burnt acid the main domestic source. November 2021 is the outlook, not the 16 million tonne year.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A metals bid in Sulawesi is a Pacific acid market. Canadian granules can serve it when freight and FOB align. They did not automatically do so in 2021's 2.29 million tonne harbour year, which was China-and-term-offtake, not HPAL. Origin concentration on the Middle East would keep Sulawesi from becoming Vancouver's default even in 2025, when VFPA Indonesia receipts slipped 13 percent as acid demand boomed.
Phosphate remained the primary seaborne sulfur bid. CRU projected strong phosphate base demand growth through 2022-23, mainly in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, before tapering toward roughly 1.0 million tonnes a year more normal growth. Sulfur demand was expected to track that phosphate expansion plus accelerating battery-metals acid use. Two pillars. November 2021 still has phosphate as the organizer.
Tampa about $192 in mid-June and $183 in the fourth quarter, USGS and BC Insight, is the Florida contract this outlook priced against. China Yn2,200 domestic and $310 CFR in December is the Yangtze contract. Neither is a nickel autoclave price. HPAL would buy whatever origin cleared. In 2021 that was still a 2025 slide.
Peter Harrison's CRU outlook at the same conference predicted the demand rebound would persist into 2022 with China substituting some pyrite-based acid for sulfur burning, and saw prices peaking in first-quarter 2022. The peak call was early. The metals pillar call was directionally right.
Argus expected just over 3 million tonnes of new sulfur capacity in 2021, concentrated in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait. Supply additions and a new demand pillar were both on the 2021 conference agenda. Price still firmed into year-end on Chinese phosphate policy. Demand-side policy beat both.
Figures follow BC Insight conference reporting. Indonesia sulfur demand doubling by 2025 is the 2021 metals-outlook chapter, later confirmed in 2023's 3.5 million tonne nickel-sulfur use.