Argus's late-2021 price-trend review said a previously stable or soft sulfur tone gave way to firmness as DAP rallied in October and Chinese phosphate export restrictions lacked clarity. Middle East FOB strength and Brazil CFR gains reflected phosphate producers restocking sulfur ahead of constrained Chinese DAP and MAP availability. The review is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2021/11/30/price-trends-54/.
Argus assessed Middle East sulfur at $223-230 per tonne FOB on 28 October after the benchmark breached $200 earlier in the month. Brazil sulfur was assessed near $245-246 per tonne CFR, up more than $100 per tonne since the start of 2021. Tampa third-quarter molten was listed near $195 per long ton on the 23 September Argus sample, with FOB Vancouver contract indications near $184-194 for third quarter. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. These are open sample and price-trend prints.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. $184-194 FOB Vancouver in the September sample is a firmer Pacific solid than early-2021, last seen around early 2014 in BC Insight's mid-year telling alongside Tampa about $192. The harbour still finished 2.29 million tonnes, down 14 percent. Price firmness in the fourth quarter did not rewrite the calendar-year stem. It set 2022's $282 Tampa open.
Chinese authorities moved to restrict DAP and MAP exports after producer agreements with NDRC. Some ports halted fresh fertilizer deliveries. Fertilizer export inspections commenced around 15 October, expected into mid-2022. That policy is the clarity-lack Argus named. Phosphate producers outside China competed for feedstock. Sulfur firmed with that competition.
Kuwait's Al Zour complex was entering the sulfur market with operations expected in early 2022 after late-2021 commissioning. New Kuwaiti solid added to the Middle East export slate just as Chinese policy tightened the phosphate-sulfur link. Incremental Gulf supply and tighter phosphate trade arrived in the same months. Price still rose. Demand-side policy beat supply-side tonnes in the fourth quarter.
TFI's later plus 198 percent March 2021 to March 2022 includes this October-November firming. USGS Tampa from about $69 at the 2021 open to $183 in the fourth quarter is the Florida path. China domestic Yn2,200 and CFR $310 in December are the Yangtze path. Three hubs, one policy.
CRU's Sulphur + Sulphuric Acid 2021 outlook had expected prices to peak in first-quarter 2022. November 2021 firmness is consistent with that call. April 2022's $481 Tampa is why the peak came later and higher. Conference calls are not USGS prints.
Figures follow BC Insight and Argus price-trend notes. Year-end 2021 firmness on phosphate and Chinese policy is the setup for the 2022 spike, not yet the spike.