USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2023 reports Tampa, Florida contract sulfur began 2022 around $282 per long ton before climbing to $481 per long ton in early April. The opening level already reflected late-2021 Chinese phosphate export curbs and strong phosphate prices entering the year. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023-sulfur.pdf.
Fourth-quarter 2021 Tampa had remained near $183 per long ton after a year that began near $69. $282 at the 2022 open is a further step, not a quiet hangover. BC Insight and Argus late-2021 price-trend notes had described Middle East FOB breaching $200 in October, Brazil CFR near $245-246, and DAP rallies with unclear Chinese export restrictions. January 2022 inherits that firmness.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Port of Vancouver sulphur had been 2.29 million tonnes in 2021, the trough of the decade's volume path. 2022 would print 2.79 million tonnes, up 22 percent, because $282 heading to $481 paid forming, remelt, and loaders. January is when that payment schedule starts, before $478 FOB in May and before the crash.
China NDRC-linked DAP and MAP export restrictions from 15 October 2021, inspections commencing around that date, expected into mid-2022, had already tightened global phosphate availability. Phosphate producers outside China competed for sulfur feedstock. $282 Tampa is that competition in a US molten contract. TFI's plus 198 percent March 2021 to March 2022 is the twelve-month version of the same climb.
US 2021 elemental unit value about $92.30, from $24.60 in 2020, is the USGS annual that this $282 open sits above as a contract. 2022's $150 unit-value would average the spike and the crash. January only has the spike ahead.
Russia's invasion is still six weeks away. July's Chinese quota is six months away. January 2022 is late-2021 China policy plus phosphate restocking, not yet war-risk, not yet demand destruction. The $282 open is the last print that can be read as a continuation rally without those two later shocks.
CRU's late-2021 outlook had expected prices to peak in first-quarter 2022. The call preceded the actual second-quarter blow-off that took Vancouver near $478 FOB. January $282 is consistent with a first-quarter peak call. April $481 is why that call was early. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The $282 per long ton figure is USGS.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2023. Tampa opening 2022 near $282 is the start of the spike year, already far above 2021's $69 open, not yet at $481.