Chinese authorities implemented a de-facto export quota regime in July 2022 for phosphate fertilizers in the second half. DAP operating rates fell to 40 to 50 percent at river ports and about 50 percent in Yunnan and Guizhou by end-July, triggering a global sulfur price collapse. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2403764-viewpoint-increasing-supplies-pressure-chinese-sulphur.
October 2021 NDRC-linked inspections had already restricted DAP and MAP exports. April 2022 sulfur imports of 719,800 tonnes, up 24 percent, while DAP and MAP exports fell 157 percent and 52 percent, showed inspections biting before the July quota. July is the hard stop. First-half 2022 sulfur imports had surged on phosphate-export demand. Second-half demand died.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A China that cuts export DAP burns less incremental sulfur. Vancouver FOB from $478 toward under $65, Qatar QSP from $428 to $77, CFR China to $95 on 4 August, and Tampa from $481 to $90 by the fourth quarter, are the price file of this quota. Canadian first-half stems were already on the water. Second-half remelt paused.
Huaxicun sulfur trading had halted on 16 June, removing a domestic paper venue just as physical policy intensified. Buyers leaned on domestic recovered sulfur. Argus's later 40 percent Chinese production-growth call toward 2025 is the structural import-dampener. July 2022 is the cyclical destroyer.
IFA's 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 starts from this cut. TFI's geopolitics-and-policy risk theme in 2023 surveys is the memory of this quota plus the February war. Three policy shocks in twelve months: October 2021 inspections, February 2022 invasion, July 2022 quota. Sulfur priced all three.
January-October Chinese sulfur imports 6.65 million tonnes, down 22 percent, is the customs net. April-June 2.4 million tonnes, up 50 percent, is the last surge. July-October 2.5 million tonnes, down 5.9 percent, is the quota. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Bloomberg's December 2025 urge to suspend phosphate exports until August 2026 is a later use of the same tool. July 2022 is the version that crashed sulfur 80 percent at Vancouver in five weeks, Keg River citing Fertecon.
Figures follow Argus. The July 2022 de-facto quota is the policy chapter of the 2022 collapse.