USGS notes Tampa contract prices decreased to $352 per long ton by mid-July 2022 after the early-April $481 per long ton peak. The mid-year retreat tracked collapsing Chinese phosphate export runs and rising US Gulf refinery sulfur output. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2023/mcs2023-sulfur.pdf.
$352 is still a historically high contract. It is $129 below the peak and $262 above the $90 fourth-quarter close. Mid-July is the hinge, not the floor. Seaborne spots were already crashing. Qatar August QSP would be $77. Vancouver FOB was heading under $65. Tampa's quarterly structure delayed the full print until the fourth quarter.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian FOB near $478 in May and US Gulf spot in a greater-than-$440 range over six months, Argus, are the spots Tampa $352 was catching down toward. Molten rail from Alberta into remaining US phosphate runs still delivered into this $352 contract. Pacific solid was already a different number.
China's July de-facto quota is dated the same month as this $352 print. DAP operating rates 40 to 50 percent at river ports by end-July are the plant-level confirmation. April-June Chinese sulfur imports of 2.4 million tonnes, up 50 percent, were the last surge. July-October 2.5 million tonnes, down 5.9 percent, begin here.
US Gulf refining elevated, Mosaic utilization sinking, inventories swelling in early third quarter: the Atlantic mismatch Argus named is why $352 could not hold. Fuel demand added recovered tonnes. Phosphate subtracted demand. Two cycles, one contract.
January-October Vancouver exports of 2.39 million tonnes were already most of a 2.79 million tonne year. Mid-July Tampa at $352 still looked expensive versus the FOB crash that was arriving. Forming plants that had remelted at $478 were about to find $65. The $352 contract is the last high Tampa of the cycle.
2023's mid-July $55 is the rhyme one year later. 2025's early-April $270 is a different market. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The $352 per long ton figure is USGS.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2023. Mid-July $352 Tampa is the hinge between the $481 peak and the $90 close.