Argus viewpoint reporting said Vancouver spot export pricing fell from a midpoint near $478 per tonne FOB, the highest since 2008, to under $65 per tonne FOB within about two months as phosphate fertilizer demand fizzled after the Chinese export curb. US Gulf spot FOB traded in a greater-than-$440 per tonne range over six months amid the same volatility. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2405506-viewpoint-sulfur-volatility-to-wane-as-supply-recovers.
The 26 May Argus Sulphur sample had listed FOB Vancouver at $476-480 per tonne. Keg River, citing Fertecon, reported roughly an 80 percent Vancouver spot decline over about five weeks. BC Insight reported Middle East FOB averages from about $485 per tonne in June toward about $71 by early August. Three public anchors, one crash. Licensed weekly assessment grids are not restated here. These are open-news and sample-sheet prints.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. $478 FOB paid remelt, rail, forming, and terminal with room to spare. Under $65 does not clear a chain often cited above $150 per tonne. August is when pour-to-block returns as the default for remote Alberta tonnes. Current recovery still loaded. January-October exports of 2.39 million tonnes were already largely committed.
China's July de-facto quota, DAP rates 40 to 50 percent at river ports, and floating storage near Chinese ports are the demand destruction. Qatar QSP $77 FOB in August from $428 in July is the Gulf marker. CFR China $95 on 4 August is the delivered marker. Under $65 Vancouver FOB is the Pacific origin marker. Tampa $352 in mid-July, USGS, had not yet reached $90. Contracts lag spots.
US Gulf spot in a greater-than-$440 range over six months is the Atlantic volatility Argus named. Mosaic cutting utilization added length. Higher refinery runs added recovered tonnes. Two supply increases into a Chinese hole produced that range, then the floor.
South Cheecham was still construction. The 2.79 million tonne harbour year would complete without it. Heartland forming handled the spike tonnes. Remelt tickets paused on the crash tonnes. Two valves, one August.
2023's $72 Vancouver midpoint in mid-December and $55 Tampa in mid-July are the surplus regime this crash created. 2025's $238 January-July average is when remelt would pay again. August 2022 is the break.
Figures follow Argus. Vancouver from $478 to under $65 in about two months is the Pacific price file of the 2022 collapse.