Argus noted Mosaic, the largest US sulfur consumer, reported sinking utilization and reduced sulfur consumption through 2022, a trend expected to continue into 2023, freeing more US Gulf volume for export as domestic phosphate runs stayed weak. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2405506-viewpoint-sulfur-volatility-to-wane-as-supply-recovers.
Tampa peaked at $481 per long ton in early April and sat at $352 by mid-July, USGS, on the way to $90 in the fourth quarter. A phosphate producer cutting runs into that path is margin, not molecule shortage. Affordability after the spike, and Chinese DAP competing then vanishing, is the demand side. Mosaic's sulfur offtake is the Tampa contract's core book.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. US Gulf sulfur freed for export is an Atlantic solid that can compete with Canadian Pacific granules into Brazil, Cuba, or other destinations when freight aligns. It is not a substitute for Canadian molten rail into Mosaic's remaining runs. USGS Canada at 77 percent of US elemental imports for 2019-22 is that rail book. Mosaic cutting utilization reduces the domestic bid for both Gulf molten and Canadian rail.
Higher US refinery sulfur output from elevated fuel demand, in the same Argus viewpoint, added supply while Mosaic subtracted demand. Two arrows, one surplus. January-August US production higher year on year, USGS, is the production print. $90 fourth-quarter Tampa is the price print.
China's July quota had already destroyed the seaborne bid that supported $481. Mosaic's cuts are the US plant-level rhyme. IFA's later still-below-2020 MAP and DAP is the global rhyme. Three scales, one affordability break.
Vancouver still loaded 2.39 million tonnes through October and 2.79 million for the year. Canadian forming did not wait for Mosaic. First-half stems were priced in a different world. Second-half remelt paused. Mosaic's 2023 continuation is the Argus forward look that 2023's unchanged 8.6 million tonne US production and $55 Tampa trough would live inside.
TFI's later USDA comments citing sulfur plus 198 percent from March 2021 to March 2022 are the cost-shock context for why phosphate utilization sank. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. Mosaic's utilization cut is Argus open news, not a company tonne ticker reprinted here.
Figures follow Argus. Mosaic freeing Gulf sulfur for export is the US demand chapter of the 2022 surplus.