BC Insight later framed late 2022 as the start of a global surplus and lower-price period after the mid-year Chinese phosphate curb destroyed sulfur demand. The surplus phase lasted into 2023-24 even as Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia began voluntary stock drawdowns. The inventory essay is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/11/30/sulphur-inventory-availability-and-pricing/.
July's de-facto phosphate-export quota, DAP operating rates 40 to 50 percent at river ports, Qatar QSP from $428 to $77 FOB in August, Vancouver FOB from $478 toward under $65, and Tampa from $481 in April to $352 in mid-July toward $90 in the fourth quarter, are the same event in different prints. September 2022 is when the surplus diagnosis became the base case.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A surplus that starts with Chinese demand destruction is a Pacific FOB event first. Canadian remelt that was profitable at $478 became a pour-to-block decision at $65. The harbour still finished 2.79 million tonnes because first-half stems were already committed. Second-half economics changed the inland valve, not the annual.
Kazakh and Saudi draws that would begin around 2023 for regulatory and storage reasons are the later overlay. They would add tonnes into the surplus, not cause it. The cause is China's curb. USGS world output about 82 million tonnes, roughly unchanged, is the production backdrop. Demand, not Claus, broke.
Mosaic's reduced US phosphate utilization freed Gulf sulfur for export into that surplus. Higher US refinery runs added recovered tonnes. Two North American supply increases met a Chinese demand hole. Tampa $90 in the fourth quarter is the contract that hole produced.
IFA's 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 is the multi-year hangover. Nickel HPAL's later 3.5 million tonne 2023 sulfur use was not yet large enough in September 2022 to offset phosphate destruction. Battery metals were a 2023-25 floor, not a 2022 rescue.
Floating storage and unsold vessels near China featured in open commentary as the proximate trigger for the crash, Keg River and related notes. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The surplus framing is BC Insight's later essay applied to this September date.
Figures follow BC Insight. Late-2022 surplus after the Chinese curb is the regime that 2023-24 inherited and that 2025's deficit would reverse.