Port of Vancouver data cited by Argus showed sulfur exports of 2.39 million tonnes in January-October 2022, already exceeding the full-year 2021 total of about 2.29 million tonnes. Full-year 2022 port throughput later printed 2.79 million tonnes, up 22 percent. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2405506-viewpoint-sulfur-volatility-to-wane-as-supply-recovers.
2.39 million tonnes in ten months is a first-half-heavy year. Stems programmed when Vancouver FOB sat near $478 in May loaded through the July-August crash. The remaining 400,000 tonnes in November-December completed the 2.79 million tonne annual at FOB under $65. Volume can expand even as prices collapse if the first half is already on the water.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through this stem. Forming, rail, and loaders answered the spike. They did not need South Cheecham, still under construction. Heartland's Edmonton-area forming was the node that existed. Remelt of block was strongly profitable at $478 and became marginal at $65. The 2.39 million tonne ten-month print includes both seasons' economics.
China January-October imports 6.65 million tonnes, down 22 percent, is the destination contrast. Vancouver up, China down, means Canadian granules went to more than one book. Australia, the United States, and other Pacific offtake, plus first-half Chinese pull, fill the 2.39 million. A harbour that already beat 2021 with two months left is a harbour that 2023 would treat as a new base, not a spike anomaly.
Tampa $352 in mid-July and heading toward $90 in the fourth quarter, USGS, is the Florida path under these loadings. US production higher year on year in January-August added Atlantic length. Canadian Pacific length was this 2.39 million tonnes. Two basins, one Chinese quota.
Argus's 5 to 10 percent Cheecham capacity call for 2023 is forward-looking. October 2022 is proof the existing chain could already clear more than 2021's full year. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 2.39 million tonne figure is port data via Argus open news.
Fertilizer-category cargo at 12.8 million tonnes for the year, potash 10.0 million, is the wider VFPA fertilizer story. Sulfur 2.79 million is the yellow slice. October's 2.39 million is that slice with two months left.
Figures follow Argus and VFPA. January-October 2.39 million tonnes is the run-rate that made 2022 a volume year as well as a spike year.