Argus estimated the South Cheecham priller's 4,000 tonnes a day wet prilling addition could increase Vancouver export capacity by 5 to 10 percent in 2023, subject to international demand. Combined with higher oil-sands sulfur output, Canada's solid-export capability was set to rise into the surplus-price era. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2405506-viewpoint-sulfur-volatility-to-wane-as-supply-recovers.
Keyera's AIF notes construction of sulphur handling, forming, and storage facilities at the South Cheecham rail and truck terminal, joint venture with Enbridge, progressed through 2022. The about 4,000 to 4,400 tonnes a day wet prilling addition was expected to lift Vancouver export capacity potential once fully operational. Commencement would come at the beginning of the third quarter of 2023. December 2022 is the forward-looking capacity note, not the start-up print.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. A 5 to 10 percent capacity uplift on a 2.79 million tonne 2022 harbour year is roughly 140,000 to 280,000 tonnes of additional forming-linked export potential if demand takes it. 2023's 3.10 million tonne year, up 11 percent, is larger than that band. Cheecham was not the only valve. Heartland, other formers, and remelt of block also contributed. Demand in 2023 would be the constraint, not nameplate.
The surplus-price era Argus named is the $90 Tampa fourth quarter and the sub-$65 Vancouver FOB after the crash. Building a 4,000 tonne a day priller into that era is a take-or-pay midstream bet that oil-sands recovery needs a Fort McMurray form-and-rail door whether FOB is $478 or $65. Long-term sulphur services underwrite that bet. Weekly FOB does not unbuild it.
Higher oil-sands sulfur output is the molecule side. USGS Canada about 4.9 million tonnes in 2022, then 4.98 million in 2023, is the recovered book. Forming near the upgraders shortens the molten haul to Edmonton. That geography change is the point of Cheecham. Remelt depth stays at Heartland. New recovery gets a local former.
Tampa $90 in the fourth quarter, USGS, is the Florida contract this capacity would price against in 2023. Argus expected North American output to damp 2022-style volatility. Cheecham is part of that output-and-logistics recovery thesis. It does not add Claus. It adds granules.
UNCERTAIN: 2023 utilization, later flagged by January-May 2024 startup issues. The 5 to 10 percent figure is Argus's industry estimate, subject to international demand, as the viewpoint said. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Figures follow Argus and Keyera. South Cheecham's 2023 capacity call is the December 2022 logistics footnote under a 2.79 million tonne harbour year.