Argus expected Chinese authorities to resume prior customs inspections for phosphate fertilizer exports from January 2023, continuing to restrain sulfur demand intensity versus the first-half 2022 surge. Domestic sulfur capacity growth further reduced China's need for opportunistic imports. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2403764-viewpoint-increasing-supplies-pressure-chinese-sulphur.
October 2021 NDRC-linked DAP and MAP export restrictions and July 2022's de-facto quota regime had already rewritten Chinese sulfur demand. April-June 2022 sulfur imports of 2.4 million tonnes, up 50 percent, then July-October 2.5 million, down 5.9 percent, defined that surge and fade. January 2023 inspections are the continuation, not a new invention. IFA's 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 is the production counterpart.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A China that inspects phosphate exports burns less incremental sulfur for export DAP. It still imported 8.8 million tonnes of sulfur in 2023, up 16 percent, IndexBox, at lower value. Inspections restrained intensity versus H1 2022. They did not close the import door. Canada still supplied about 1.2 million tonnes.
Argus had highlighted a roughly 3 million tonne year-on-year plunge in Chinese sulfur imports during 2020, then the 2021-22 price spike, then the 2022 H2 collapse. 2023 inspections sit in that policy sequence. Four near-term Chinese sulfur projects expected to add more than 2 million tonnes a year, in 2021 Argus supply notes, are the domestic capacity growth that reduces opportunistic import need over time. USGS's 19.4 million tonne 2023 China production line is that domestic book.
Tampa's 2023 path to $55 in mid-July is the global rhyme of a China that is not in a phosphate-export boom. Vancouver FOB to $72 in December is the Pacific rhyme. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The inspection expectation is Argus open news, not a customs notice reprinted here.
Bloomberg's 12 December 2025 report of Chinese fertilizer associations urging majors to suspend phosphate exports until August 2026 is a later chapter of the same policy instinct. January 2023 inspections are the quieter version. 2022's de-facto quota was the violent version. Three intensities, one tool: restrain export DAP to protect domestic fertilizer.
South Korea and UAE at about 1.1 million tonnes each into China in 2023, with Canada 1.2 million, is the origin table inspections still allowed. Gulf and Canadian granules still arrived. CIF was cheap. Volume recovered. Value did not.
Figures follow Argus. The January 2023 inspection expectation is the policy chapter that kept 2023 sulfur demand from repeating H1 2022.