Argus's December 2023 viewpoint said market participants expected the first-quarter 2024 Tampa settlement to track soft Vancouver and US Gulf spot into the mid-$60s per long ton to low-$70s per long ton delivered, illustrating how late-2023 bearishness capped North American liquid contracts into early 2024. The item is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2523114-viewpoint-global-softness-to-pressure-northam-sulfur.
This 1 March 2023 desk date sits on the 2023 tape. The Argus language cited is the December 2023 viewpoint that closed the year and set 2024 Q1 expectations. USGS later recorded Tampa opening 2024 at $69 per long ton, inside that mid-$60s to low-$70s band. The expectation held. It is not a licensed weekly grid restated here. It is open-news participant talk that USGS's $69 confirmed.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Soft Vancouver FOB at $72 midpoint on 14 December is the Pacific print those Tampa expectations tracked. Molten rail south delivers into Tampa's world. A FOB fade that trims remelt also trims the bid for US liquid when Canadian and Gulf spots are offered lower. Two hubs, one bearish winter.
2023 Tampa itself had opened near $90, spiked to $130 in mid-January, then slumped to $55 by mid-July, USGS MCS 2024. First-quarter 2023 was not yet the $69 2024 open. It was the $90-to-$130 window. The December viewpoint is filed here as the year's closing read on how 2023 softness would price 2024 Q1. Readers should not confuse the 1 March slug date with the December source date. The source is the viewpoint URL above.
US Gulf nine-month production just over 6 million tonnes, Gulf Coast up 3 percent, is the Atlantic length under those expectations. Mosaic's weaker runs added to it. Canadian 3.10 million tonne harbour year added Pacific length. First-quarter 2024 $69 is surplus clearing, not a new shock.
China's 8.8 million tonne import year at lower value is the seaborne bid that did not lift FOB into winter. Nickel HPAL imported 2.7 million tonnes of sulfur and 1.1 million of acid and still did not prevent a $72 Vancouver print. Two demand books, still a surplus.
Alberta remelt had already slowed by the time Argus wrote the December viewpoint. Early-2023 remelt to pace exports was over. $69 Tampa in January 2024 would not restart it. $238 Vancouver FOB in 2025 would.
Figures follow Argus open news and USGS confirmation of the $69 2024 open. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.