The International Fertilizer Association medium-term outlook notes phosphoric acid production rose about 1 percent to 85 million tonnes in 2023 and MAP plus DAP about 3 percent to 64.3 million tonnes, still below 2020 levels after three years of decline. Lower Moroccan output was offset by China and West Asia, shaping sulfur acid demand recovery pace. The report is at https://www.fertilizer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/2024_ifa_medium_term_outlook_report.pdf.
Still below 2020 after a 3 percent bounce is a phosphate market healing, not booming. China's 2021-22 export inspections and 2022 de-facto quotas had cut processed-phosphate trade and, with it, sulfur intensity in some Chinese plants. 2023's 1 percent phosphoric acid rise is the first recovery step. IFA later saw 2024 MAP and DAP up 4 percent to 66.8 million tonnes, still below 2020 peaks.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Phosphate is the primary seaborne sulfur bid. A 64.3 million tonne MAP and DAP year at $55 to $102 Tampa is affordable sulfur into a still-subdued phosphate volume. Nickel HPAL's 3.5 million tonne sulfur use is the second bid. IFA is the first.
Morocco's lower output in 2023, offset by China and West Asia, is also a sulfur-origin story. OCP is a large sulfuric-acid user on phosphate rock. Kazakh tonnes via Ust-Luga toward Morocco in 2023-24 are that plant's seaborne sulfur. Vancouver does not load Jorf Lasfar as a default. Basis is world sulfur units.
China remaining a large MAP and DAP producer while recovering sulfur imports 16 percent to 8.8 million tonnes is the Yangtze bid Canadian granules met. Domestic Chinese sulfur near 19.4 million tonnes, USGS, still left an import door. 45 percent import dependence in later SMM commentary is the structural exposure. 2023 IFA volumes are the demand that filled it cheaply.
TFI's US survey still named geopolitics. IFA's tonne counts are the global production tape. Tampa $90 opening, $130 mid-January, $55 mid-July, USGS, is the US contract those 64.3 million tonnes of MAP and DAP were not all paying. US apparent consumption is a slice. Seaborne sulfur serves Morocco, China, Brazil, and India as well.
Battery-metals outlooks in the same year treated HPAL as an offset to this still-soft phosphate. They were right on direction. They were not yet the organizer of Vancouver's 3.10 million tonne year. China 1.2 million tonnes was.
Figures follow IFA. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 64.3 million tonne MAP and DAP print is the 2023 phosphate demand chapter under a surplus sulfur year.