CRU later noted Indonesia sulfuric acid imports jumped from about 0.31 million tonnes in 2022 to nearly 1.1 million in 2023, more than 250 percent, initially met by Japan and South Korea as HPAL nickel projects ramped. Nickel-related acid demand was on a path from about 3.5 million tonnes a year in 2021 toward much higher mid-decade levels. The later CRU note is at https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/CRU-launches-Indonesia-acid-price-as-nickel-sector-lifts-demand/.
S&P Global Energy's about 1 million tonne 2023 Indonesian acid import line is the same surge. Elemental sulfur imports of about 2.7 million tonnes, three times 2020, are the other sulfur-unit door. Coastal burners substituting elemental for imported acid would later shift the mix. June 2023 is when acid imports are the visible ramp.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Japanese and Korean acid into Sulawesi is not a Canadian granule. It is East Asian smelter and recovered acid competing with seaborne sulfur. When burners switch to elemental, Vancouver can compete. When they import acid, it cannot. The 2023 acid surge is a substitution race.
BC Insight's 3.5 million tonne global nickel-sulfur use in 2023, from 1.7 million in 2020, is the elemental counterpart. CRU's later 16 million tonne 2025 Indonesian acid path, sulfur-burnt acid the main domestic source, acid imports still about 1.0 million, is the destination of this 2023 jump. 1.1 million tonnes of acid imports is the bridge.
Tampa at $55 in mid-July 2023 meant phosphate was not setting a scarcity price. HPAL still needed acid. A metals bid that can jump acid imports 250 percent in a surplus year is a bid that will still be there when Tampa is $270 or $705. Affordability then becomes the question. 2023 is volume, not price.
Argus later put 2024 Indonesian HPAL acid demand at 5.17 million tonnes and 7.12 million seen for 2025. January-July 2024 sulfur imports 1.92 million tonnes, up 39 percent, show elemental catching up. June 2023 is the acid-first print.
China's sulfuric acid exports heading toward 4.65 million tonnes in 2025, up 73 percent, would later compete with those Indonesian burners. 2023 Japanese and Korean supply is the first wave. Chinese acid is the second. Elemental from the Gulf is the third. Canadian Pacific is the fourth. Origin rank is not fixed.
Figures follow CRU. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 0.31 to 1.1 million tonne Indonesian acid import jump is the 2023 start of the HPAL sulfur-unit surge.