BC Insight reports Saudi Arabia added roughly 0.15 million tonnes per quarter to its export programme from stock drawdown as storage neared capacity and the logistics-buffer value of stocks diminished. Unlike Canada's price-driven remelt, Saudi draws continued even in the lower-price surplus period. The inventory essay is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/11/30/sulphur-inventory-availability-and-pricing/.
0.15 million tonnes a quarter is 0.6 million tonnes a year if the pace holds. That is a seaborne increment from pad, not from new Claus. Middle East exporters already dominated seaborne trade volumes in USGS's 2023 telling. A storage-driven draw adds to that dominance in a cheap year.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian remelt slowed as FOB faded toward $72. Saudi tonnes kept leaving because tanks and pads were full. Two inventory regimes. A world surplus that includes a must-run Gulf destock is why $55 Tampa in mid-July did not produce a Canadian remelt boom.
USGS MCS 2025 flagged Middle East refining upgrades to lift sulfur supply from 2025. June 2023 is before those upgrades' loading years. It is already a draw from existing stock. Al Fadhili and other 2021-era sour-gas ramps had already added incremental Gulf sulfur into the 2022 spike and 2023 surplus. Stock location near capacity is the physical limit, not the price.
China's 8.8 million tonne 2023 import year, UAE about 1.1 million tonnes as a top-three origin, is one door for Saudi and other Gulf granules. Morocco, India, and Brazil are others. 0.15 million tonnes a quarter does not need a single destination. It needs a vessel programme. Soft CIF made that programme a volume, not a revenue, event.
Kazakh crushed-lump sales started in the same year for regulatory reasons. Canadian remelt ran then slowed for price reasons. CRU's three-way contrast is the desk file. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 0.15 million tonne a quarter figure is BC Insight's industry estimate.
Tampa $55 to $102 across 2023, USGS, is the Florida contract this extra Gulf solid competed with in world units. Vancouver 3.10 million tonnes still loaded. Origin substitution into China stayed Gulf-heavy. 2026 Hormuz would reverse that. June 2023 is Gulf pad becoming cargo because it had to.
Figures follow BC Insight. The Saudi voluntary draw is the storage-capacity chapter of 2023's surplus, not a Canadian netback story.