USGS records Tampa contract sulfur at about $55 per long ton in mid-July 2023, the softest print of the year and consistent with global surplus conditions after China's 2022 demand shock and rising recovered sulfur supply. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2024/mcs2024-sulfur.pdf.
The 2023 path began around $90 per long ton, rose to $130 in mid-January, then fell to $55 by mid-July, with the fourth quarter later at $102. Volatile, far below the early-April 2022 peak of $481. Mid-July $55 is the floor of that path. It is also near the early-2021 neighbourhood USGS used for the post-pandemic open, before the 2021 climb to $183-$195.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A $55 Tampa contract is the US molten print. Vancouver FOB would print $72 midpoint in mid-December, Argus, after a 25 percent fourth-quarter fade. Mid-July is earlier. Soft Florida molten and a still-growing Pacific stem is the North American map. Basis is freight, form, and rail, not a single price.
China's 2022 phosphate export curb had destroyed sulfur demand in the second half of that year. 2023 imports recovered 16 percent to 8.8 million tonnes at lower value. Mid-July $55 is the Tampa rhyme of that cheap CIF world. High China port stocks and Middle East capacity ramp kept seaborne values compressed, Argus November outlook language later said.
US January-September production just over 6 million tonnes, Gulf Coast 3.57 million up 3 percent, Argus citing USGS, is the Atlantic supply under this trough. Mosaic's weaker utilization had already freed Gulf sulfur. More output into a $55 contract is surplus. Apparent consumption did not vanish. Affordability improved. Phosphate plants that had waited through $481 could buy.
Alberta January-October production up 11 percent to 3.78 million tonnes, AER via Argus, is the Pacific supply. Remelt slowed as FOB softened. Current recovery still loaded. VFPA's 3.10 million tonne year includes the months around this $55 print. Volume and price disconnected.
Kazakh and Saudi stock draws continued for non-price reasons. Nickel HPAL still imported sulfur into Indonesia. A $55 Tampa does not mean demand is dead. It means phosphate's bid was patient and the seaborne list was long. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The $55 per long ton figure is the USGS contract print.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2024. The mid-July trough is the 2023 price chapter. Fourth-quarter $102 is the bounce. 2024's $69 open is the hangover. 2025's $270 April is a different market.