Industry outlooks through 2023 increasingly treated Indonesian HPAL and lithium acid as structural sulfur and acid demand that could firm markets even when phosphate affordability was weak. Global nickel-related sulfur use had already roughly doubled versus 2020, to about 3.5 million tonnes in 2023, BC Insight. The nickel feature is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/09/30/full-speed-ahead-for-indonesian-nickel/.
Late-2021 CRU conference language had projected US lithium acid demand to consume an extra about 1.2 million tonnes a year of sulfur by 2030. 2023 is when that second pillar sat beside phosphates in the outlook stack, not only in 2030 slides. IFA's MAP and DAP at 64.3 million tonnes, still below 2020, is the soft phosphate book. Nickel is the offset.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A metals bid in Sulawesi and a lithium bid in the US are not automatically Vancouver stems. They are sulfur-unit bids that Gulf, Canadian, and East Asian origins can fill. Soft Tampa at $55 in mid-July meant phosphate was not pulling every tonne. HPAL still imported 2.7 million tonnes of sulfur into Indonesia, S&P.
CRU later put nickel-related Indonesian acid demand on a path from about 3.5 million tonnes a year in 2021 toward 16 million in 2025, sulfur-burnt acid the main domestic source, acid imports still about 1.0 million tonnes. 2023's acid import jump from 0.31 million tonnes in 2022 to nearly 1.1 million is the first surge. Elemental substitution follows.
TFI's 2023 survey still named geopolitics and regulation as fertilizer challenges. Battery metals are a different customer class. They do not vote in TFI surveys. They burn sulfur. A desk that only watches Tampa will miss that bid until CIF into Indonesia moves. A desk that watches Vancouver destinations will see it when Indonesia's share rises or slips on origin substitution.
Argus later put 2024 Indonesian HPAL acid demand at 5.17 million tonnes. July 2024 Indonesian sulfur imports of 425,000 tonnes, January-July 1.92 million, up 39 percent, are the 2024 print of this 2023 outlook. July 2023 is the industry narrative catching up with the 3.5 million tonne nickel-sulfur count.
Canadian 3.10 million tonne harbour year still cleared on China and term offtake. Metals demand was the floor under a surplus, not yet the organizer of the stem. 2026 affordability at record Tampa is when this floor gets tested against phosphate margins.
Figures follow BC Insight and related CRU outlooks. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.