Argus citing USGS put US sulfur production in the first nine months of 2023 just over 6 million tonnes, up 20,000 tonnes year on year. Only the Gulf Coast region rose, with January-September output about 3.57 million tonnes, up 3 percent, while other US regions declined. The viewpoint is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2523114-viewpoint-global-softness-to-pressure-northam-sulfur.
MCS 2024 estimated full-year 2023 US production about unchanged from 2022 near 8.6 million tonnes, elemental recovered about 8.0 million. A 20,000 tonne nine-month increase is flat in any commercial sense. The regional split is the story: Gulf refining stayed busy; inland and West Coast recovered streams did not.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. US Gulf recovered sulfur leaves as molten into Florida phosphate and as solid export when domestic consumption eases. Mosaic's 2022 utilization cuts had already reduced US sulfur consumption. A 3 percent Gulf Coast production rise into that lighter domestic book is more tonnes looking for a home, including export.
Tampa at $55 per long ton in mid-July, USGS, is the contract that Gulf molten was delivering into. Soft contracts plus rising Gulf output is surplus. Argus's late-2022 outlook had expected elevated refinery throughputs to boost North American sulfur output in 2023 and promote price stability. The nine-month print confirms the output side. Late-2023 Chinese softness reintroduced downside on the price side.
Canada at 77 percent of US elemental imports for 2019-22, MCS 2024, is the rail book that still arrived while Gulf output rose 3 percent. Import share and domestic production can both be high when apparent consumption is 9-plus million tonnes. MCS 2026 later put 2024 apparent consumption at 9.36 million tonnes. 2023 is in that neighbourhood.
World 85.8 million tonnes in MCS 2025's 2023 line, Canada 4.98 million, US 8.6 million, China about 19.4 million: the US Gulf 3.57 million tonne nine-month regional print is a slice of the 8.6 million. It is the slice that prices Tampa. Vancouver prices Pacific solid. Two hubs, one recovered-byproduct industry.
Lost refining capacity since end-2019 still meant a full return to 2018 sulfur output was unlikely, Argus had said entering 2023. A 3 percent Gulf rise is improvement, not a flood back to older peaks. Fuel demand supported runs. Phosphate demand did not absorb every extra tonne at $130 Tampa. It waited for $55.
Figures follow USGS via Argus. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 3.57 million tonne Gulf nine-month print is the Atlantic supply side of 2023's soft Tampa year.