BC Insight notes Kazakhstan started a stock-drawdown programme in 2023 with crushed lump sulfur sales, later accelerating in 2024. Strict storage regulations mean almost all Tengiz and Kashagan sulfur is exported rather than blocked long term. The Central Asia feature is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/01/31/sulphur-in-central-asia-2/.
A government fine over about 1.7 million tonnes of accumulated Kashagan sulfur stock, in the related inventory essay, is the policy trigger. The programme later added roughly 0.25 million tonnes a quarter to Kazakh exports through mid-2025, with the Kashagan draw seen finishing by mid-2025. 2023 is the start. 2024's about 1.2 million tonnes of extra sales is the acceleration.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian block is a price-contingent battery. Kazakh crushed lump is a regulatory sale. When Vancouver FOB is $72, Alberta pad stays pad. When Kazakh storage rules bite, pad becomes cargo anyway. That is why a global surplus can coexist with a Central Asian destock.
Exports moved by rail via Russia to Ust-Luga. Morocco and Africa were the offtake. A record path in 2023-24 is logistics through a corridor that 2026 would close. Russia's export ban through 31 December 2026 and Kazakhstan's June 2026 suspension are the later file. September 2023 is crushed lump leaving the yard.
Tengiz output at 2.4 million tonnes in 2023 plus Kashagan stock is the molecule source. Forming and crushing on site are the product. This is not molten rail to Florida. It is solid toward Atlantic phosphate. IFA's 2023 MAP and DAP still below 2020 meant those tonnes met a recovering, not booming, phosphate book.
CRU's inventory essay contrasts this draw with Canada's remelt, which slows when prices fall, and with Saudi draws that continued because storage neared capacity. Three inventory regimes, one 2023 surplus. USGS world production about 85.8 million tonnes is the Claus planet those regimes sat on.
Canadian marketers watching Ust-Luga are watching a competitor into Morocco, not into China. Vancouver's Chinese 1.2 million tonne 2023 share is a different lane. Basis is world sulfur units, not a shared stem.
Figures follow BC Insight. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 2023 crushed-lump programme is the inventory switch that 2024 export records rest on.