BC Insight estimates global sulfur consumption for nickel production climbed from 1.7 million tonnes a year in 2020 to 3.5 million tonnes a year in 2023, mostly from Indonesian HPAL. The metals pull increasingly competed with phosphate for seaborne sulfur even in soft fertilizer years. The item is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/09/30/full-speed-ahead-for-indonesian-nickel/.
A doubling in three years is a new demand pillar beside phosphates. CRU conference outlooks in late 2021 had already flagged Indonesia sulfur demand roughly doubling by 2025. 2023's 3.5 million tonne print is that flag becoming a tonne count. Later BC Insight language headed toward 6.7 million tonnes a year later in the decade. CRU's 16 million tonne Indonesian acid path for 2025 is acid, not all elemental sulfur, but the same autoclave bid.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Nickel HPAL in Sulawesi is a Pacific acid market. Canadian granules can serve it when freight and FOB align. They did not automatically do so. VFPA 2025 Indonesia receipts slipped 13 percent even as Indonesian acid demand boomed, because Middle East elemental and Chinese acid competed. 2023 is when the bid became large enough to matter in a surplus.
IFA put phosphoric acid production up about 1 percent to 85 million tonnes in 2023 and MAP plus DAP about 3 percent to 64.3 million tonnes, still below 2020 after three years of decline. Phosphate was soft. Nickel sulfur use was not. A market that can absorb 3.5 million tonnes into nickel while Tampa sits at $55 in mid-July is a market with two books. Affordability stress in one does not kill the other.
S&P Global Energy's 2.7 million tonne Indonesian sulfur import year is the seaborne counterpart of this 3.5 million tonne global nickel-sulfur use. Acid imports near 1 million tonnes are the other sulfur-unit door. Coastal burners substituting elemental for imported acid shift the seaborne mix toward dry-bulk sulfur. That is a Vancouver-relevant shift. It is not a Vancouver exclusive.
Canada's 3.10 million tonne 2023 Vancouver year sold into China first, IndexBox 1.2 million tonnes, then into the rest of the Pacific and US receipts. Nickel is a growing residual, not yet the stem's organizer. 2024's 5.17 million tonne Indonesian HPAL acid demand, Argus, is the next step. 2026 affordability at $705 Tampa and $1,100 Gulf solids is when this metals bid gets tested.
Tengiz, Kashagan, and Saudi stock draws added seaborne tonnes into the same 2023 surplus those nickel plants were buying. CRU's contrast stands: Canadian remelt is price-driven. Those draws are not. Nickel HPAL bought whatever origin cleared. Gulf granules had the volume. Canadian granules had the Pacific routing.
Figures follow BC Insight. Licensed weekly grids are not restated. The 3.5 million tonne 2023 nickel-sulfur use is the metals floor under a $55 Tampa mid-year trough.