Hellenic Shipping News early-January 2024 commentary noted average Suez transits down about 14 percent since mid-December 2023 as Red Sea attacks prompted Cape of Good Hope reroutes. Longer voyages tightened vessel supply and raised insurance and freight costs for Middle East-Asia dry and product cargoes including sulfur. The item is at https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tighter-fleet-capacity-geopolitical-issues-longer-voyages-to-boost-2024-tanker-freight/.
A 14 percent Suez cut is not a Hormuz closure. It is extra days around the Cape for cargoes that still load in the Arabian Gulf. 2026's 45 percent of seaborne sulfur stuck behind a closed Strait is a different file. January 2024 is freight, not missing tonnes.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Pacific Canadian solids to China, Australia, and Indonesia do not use Suez. A Red Sea disruption that lifts Middle East-Asia dry freight can, at the margin, help Vancouver basis into Asia if Gulf FOB plus Cape freight exceeds Vancouver FOB plus Pacific freight. 2024's $78 January-July Vancouver average and cheap Gulf OSPs meant the margin was small. The map still matters.
Tampa $69 open, USGS, is a domestic US molten contract that does not steam to Suez. US Gulf export solids that do go to Asia or East Africa would feel Cape days. 2024 unusual destinations were not yet 2026's North Africa and East Africa spike. January is the freight warning.
China's 9.95 million tonne 2024 import year, UAE first origin, still moved. Forty-five percent later Hormuz dependence did not stop 2024 Gulf-China fixtures. It made them more expensive if they went Cape. Hellenic's insurance and freight lift is that expense.
Indonesian sulfur-burn switch and Kazakh Ust-Luga sales are 2024 volume stories that do not need Suez. Kazakh Baltic tonnes to Morocco do not use Suez either. Red Sea is a Gulf-Asia dry-bulk story.
The desk will not treat a 14 percent Suez transit cut as a sulfur shortage. It will treat it as a freight print. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Figures follow Hellenic Shipping News.