USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 reports Tampa contract sulfur began 2024 at $69 per long ton, rose to $81 per long ton in early March, eased to $76 per long ton in early July, with the fourth quarter around the mid-$70s to low $80s band in that edition's telling, and MCS 2025 also putting Q4 at $116 per long ton as the later lift. Still a soft year versus 2022 and 2025-26 spikes. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-sulfur.pdf.
Sixty-nine dollars per long ton matches the 2021 year-open neighbourhood. The logistics map is not 2021's. Vancouver has climbed from 2.29 million tonnes in 2021 to a 2024 year that would finish 3.35 million. Indonesian HPAL is burning sulfur. Kazakh pad is selling. The price is 2021. The map is 2024.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. $69 Tampa and $78 January-July Vancouver FOB, the later Argus window, do not pay $150-plus remelt. Pour-to-block remains rational. Forming-led de-blocking after Cheecham still moves some tonnes. FOB-led remelt waits for Q4 $116 and for 2025.
US production easing toward 8.2 million tonnes, world near 85 million, Canada 5.0 million, MCS 2025 2024e. Soft prices and steady balances. The Q1 Outlook called this the last unambiguously soft quarter before H2 firming.
China's 2024 import year at 9.95 million tonnes, $116 average, would rhyme with Tampa Q4 $116. January's $69 is before that rhyme. December Chinese $160.6 monthly average is the winter turn.
TFI's 198 percent 2021-22 spike comment, posted the same month, is the memory. $69 is the present. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
The 2026 $705 print is later Argus open news at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2025.