The International Fertilizer Association short-term outlook estimated phosphoric acid up 4 percent to 88.4 million tonnes and MAP plus DAP up 4 percent to 66.8 million tonnes in 2024, led by China plus 2 million tonnes and Morocco plus 1.1 million tonnes, yet still below 2020 peaks, moderating sulfur intensity growth versus metals HPAL demand. The report is at https://fertilizer.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/2024_ifa_short_term_outlook_report.pdf.
Below 2020 is the phosphate sentence of 2024. Sulfur demand from MAP and DAP is large and not growing at HPAL speed. A 4 percent lift led by China and Morocco is a recovery, not a new plateau. 2020 peaks remain the high-water mark IFA is measuring against.
Morocco plus 1.1 million tonnes of MAP and DAP is OCP. Kazakhstan's 73 percent destination share into Morocco in 2024 is how some of that extra phosphate was fed. China plus 2 million tonnes is the domestic phosphate book that also imported 9.95 million tonnes of elemental sulfur at $116 average.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Moderating phosphate sulfur intensity versus HPAL is why 2024 could stay in surplus while Indonesian sulfur imports jumped 39 percent in seven months. Two demand books, phosphate large and slow, nickel smaller and fast.
Tampa $69 open, $81 March, USGS, is the US phosphate contract under this IFA outlook. Soft, seasonal. 2025's Tampa $310 October is a different phosphate year, CRU's 1.9 million tonne deficit. 2026's $705 is rationing.
TFI's January USDA comments had reiterated sulfur as a critical ammoniated-phosphate input and cited the 198 percent March 2021-March 2022 price spike as supply-chain exposure. IFA's 66.8 million tonnes still below 2020 is the volume side of that exposure: phosphate did not rebuild to the prior peak, so sulfur intensity did not either.
Licensed weekly grids are not restated. 66.8 million tonnes and 88.4 million tonnes are IFA's estimates.
Figures follow IFA.