USGS notes Tampa contract sulfur increased to $81 per long ton in early March 2024 from the $69 per long ton year-open. The modest bounce reflected seasonal phosphate buying rather than a structural deficit. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-sulfur.pdf.
Twelve dollars per long ton is not 2022's path to $481. It is not 2025's path to $270 in April. It is a seasonal step on a surplus tape. July would ease to $76. Q4 would jump to $116. March $81 is the first hint, in the Q1 Outlook's words, that the floor was not permanent.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. $81 Tampa does not clear a $150-plus remelt chain. Molten rail of about 900,000 tonnes still watches this contract. Pacific solid watches $78 January-July FOB. Two doors, still cheap.
Kazakh and Saudi programme draws were filling seaborne. Indonesian sulfur burning was starting to switch. IFA MAP and DAP toward 66.8 million tonnes, still below 2020. Seasonal phosphate buying can lift Tampa $12 without ending a surplus.
US production and shipments estimated 5 percent below 2023 in MCS 2025 implied a slightly tighter domestic US balance beneath the quiet contract, without restoring 2022 scarcity psychology. Canada 5.0 million tonnes in that MCS 2025 2024e, later 5.06 million revised.
World near 85 million tonnes in MCS 2025's 2024e. Flat. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
The 2026 $705 Q3 Tampa print is a later Argus open-news item at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. March 2024 does not know it.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2025. Seasonal phosphate buying rather than structural deficit is USGS's framing.