BC Insight reports Kazakhstan sulfur exports totaled 4.02 million tonnes for the year to October 2024, up 35 percent year on year, with Morocco taking about 73 percent of sales. An estimated additional 1.2 million tonnes of stockpiled sulfur was sold in 2024 on top of higher Tengiz output, about 2.65 million tonnes expected. The Central Asia feature is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/01/31/sulphur-in-central-asia-2/.
Four point zero two million tonnes in ten months is a 4.8 million tonne annualized pace, above Canada's 5.06 million tonne 2024 recovered output and above Vancouver's 3.35 million tonne solid year. Record Kazakh exports are a seaborne event. They move on Russian rail to Ust-Luga.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A 35 percent Kazakh export surge into Morocco is competition for Canadian tonnes into Atlantic phosphate. 2026's rail halt is why that competition disappeared and OCP cut. May 2024 is the surge, not the halt.
CRU expected inventory sales to end in 2025 and exports to fall toward 3.5 million tonnes a year from 2026. That normalization assumed Ust-Luga stayed open. It did not, after 26 May 2026.
Tampa $81 in March, USGS, is the Florida price beside a record CIS export path. Soft. Ample. The 73 percent Morocco concentration is the map of 2026 damage.
Canada remelt stayed price-elastic and mostly quiet at $78 Vancouver FOB January-July. Kazakh pad did not wait on FOB. Two inventory philosophies, one surplus.
FGP still does not add sulfur. Wellhead Management's lift to 2.65 million tonnes is the recovery piece. 1.2 million tonnes is the pad piece. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Figures follow BC Insight.