USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 noted that starting in 2025, Middle East sulfur production was expected to increase owing to upgrades and new refining projects, while HPAL battery-materials projects would raise sulfur demand, setting up the 2025 tightening that preceded 2026 conflict shocks. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-sulfur.pdf.
Supply from more Gulf Claus units and demand from more Sulawesi autoclaves is a classic tightening setup on a still-surplus 2024 tape. Tampa $81 in March, $76 in July. Vancouver FOB $78 January-July. The setup is forward. The 2024 market is still cheap.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A Middle East supply lift from 2025 is competition for Canadian solids into China, 1.66 million tonnes of 2024 Chinese imports from Canada versus UAE 1.70 million and Saudi 1.13 million. A 2026 Hormuz closure turns that competition into a missing book. May 2024 is the USGS flag, not the closure.
HPAL demand in the same MCS sentence is Argus's 5.17 million tonne 2024 Indonesian HPAL acid path heading toward 7.12 million in 2025, and CRU's 6.7 million tonne nickel-sulfur path by 2028. USGS did not need to name IMIP. The desk can.
World output near 85 million tonnes in that MCS 2025 2024e, later 83.9 million revised, is the flat planet those upgrades would add to. 2025's 84 million tonnes with a 1.9 million tonne CRU deficit is tradeable surplus gone, including Kashagan pad finishing.
Saudi storage-capacity draws of about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter in 2024 are extra 2024 supply, not the 2025 upgrade wave. Do not confuse a full tank with a new refinery.
Tampa Q4 2024 at $116, USGS MCS 2025, is the first Florida print that looks like the setup working. 2025 $270 April is the setup arrived. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2025.