Argus estimated sulfuric acid demand from Indonesian HPAL projects at about 5.17 million tonnes in 2024, nearly 40 percent below the 7.12 million tonnes expected for 2025 as MHP output targets rose toward 325,000-345,000 tonnes in 2024 from about 269,000 tonnes in 2023. Acid availability was flagged as a potential HPAL bottleneck. The item is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2614510-indonesia-s-ni-expansion-via-hpal-could-face-challenges.
Five point one seven million tonnes of acid is about 1.7 million tonnes of sulfur-equivalent if all burned from elemental, using the about 1-to-3 sulfur-to-acid rule. Not all of it is elemental. Some is imported acid. January-July sulfur imports of 1.92 million tonnes, up 39 percent, and July acid imports down 64 percent to 64,000 tonnes, are the switch toward burning.
The 7.12 million tonne 2025 acid expectation is why CRU later put nickel-related Indonesian acid near 16 million tonnes a year in 2025 in a broader thought-leadership note that includes the whole nickel-acid complex, not only HPAL. Different CRU cuts, same direction: Sulawesi drinks more sulfur units every year of the mid-2020s.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A 5.17 million tonne 2024 HPAL acid bid is a reason metals were cited as a floor under 2025 FOB even when phosphate affordability wobbled. It is also why a 23 percent slip in 2025 Vancouver-Indonesia receipts was a mix story, not a dead bid.
Chinese acid exports toward 4.65 million tonnes in 2025 filled part of the 7.12 million tonne 2025 expectation, then halted in 2026. ENC's on-site plant is the local substitute. August 2024 is the 5.17 versus 7.12 gap, the bottleneck flag.
Tampa $76 in early July 2024, USGS, is soft phosphate beside this metals build. Surplus still absorbed both. 2026 could not.
Acid availability as a potential bottleneck is Argus's flag. The desk will not invent a plant outage.
Figures follow Argus. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.