BC Insight destination breakdown for Kazakhstan's 2024 export surge put Morocco at about 73 percent of total sales and other African countries at 12 percent. The dependence later magnified 2026 damage when Russian rail transit of Kazakh sulfur was halted. The Central Asia feature is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/01/31/sulphur-in-central-asia-2/.
Seventy-three percent is OCP. Jorf and Safi buy seaborne solid sulfur to make acid for phosphate rock. A Kazakh stock sale of about 1.2 million tonnes extra in 2024, plus Tengiz toward 2.65 million tonnes, moving mainly via Ust-Luga, is a Morocco feed story. It is not a Vancouver story except as competition.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian tonnes into Morocco in 2024 had to compete with that 73 percent. In 2026, when the 73 percent could not rail, Canadian and US Gulf solids became the residual. OCP's later 50 percent Q2 2026 cut is what residual looks like when it is not enough.
Year-to-October 2024 Kazakh exports of 4.02 million tonnes, up 35 percent, are the surge. CRU expected inventory sales to end in 2025 and exports to fall toward 3.5 million tonnes a year from 2026. Transit bans made even 3.5 million tonnes a closed path. September 2024 is the destination concentration, not yet the ban.
Tampa $76 in early July, USGS, is the US phosphate contract in the same surplus that fed Jorf cheaply. 2026 Tampa $705 is Jorf and Mosaic short. The 73 percent figure is the map of who gets hurt when Ust-Luga stops.
Other African countries at 12 percent are the copper-belt and West African acid bids that 2026 US Gulf unusual cargoes to East Africa would later try to reach from the Mississippi. 2024 they could still lift in the Baltic.
The desk will not invent an OCP quote. The 73 percent is BC Insight's destination breakdown.
Figures follow BC Insight. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.