Argus cited Indonesian market sources expecting 325,000-345,000 tonnes of mixed hydroxide precipitate in 2024, up from about 269,000 tonnes in 2023, with three-year targets toward 800,000-900,000 tonnes. Sulfuric acid and sulfur availability was repeatedly flagged as a limiting factor for the HPAL buildout. The item is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2614510-indonesia-s-ni-expansion-via-hpal-could-face-challenges.
HPAL nickel is an autoclave that drinks sulfuric acid. About 1 tonne of sulfur yields about 3 tonnes of sulfuric acid when burned. A 325,000-345,000 tonne MHP year is a sulfur-unit bid that does not follow Tampa's planting calendar. Three-year targets toward 800,000-900,000 tonnes are why CRU later put global nickel sulfur use toward 6.7 million tonnes a year by 2028.
Argus estimated sulfuric acid demand from Indonesian HPAL at about 5.17 million tonnes in 2024, nearly 40 percent below the 7.12 million tonnes expected for 2025. January-July Indonesian sulfur imports of 1.92 million tonnes, up 39 percent, with July 425,000 tonnes, up more than 400 percent year on year, as burners displaced acid imports, are the elemental side of that switch.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Indonesia slipped 23 percent in Vancouver's January-July 2025 receipts after this 2024 import boom. 2024 is the year Sulawesi learned to burn sulfur. 2025-26 is the year it competed with phosphate for scarce seaborne tonnes, 76 percent Middle East-dependent in CRU's later table.
Chinese acid exports toward 4.65 million tonnes in 2025 competed with this sulfur-burn switch, then halted in 2026. ENC's on-site acid plant in June 2026 is the local answer. October 2024 is the MHP output print that made those later answers necessary.
Tampa $76 in early July 2024, USGS, is a soft phosphate contract beside a booming nickel acid bid. Two demand books, one seaborne sulfur. Surplus still won in 2024 because Kazakh and Saudi draws plus Canadian de-blocking filled both.
The 800,000-900,000 tonne three-year MHP target is a source expectation, not a desk forecast. Acid availability as a limiting factor is Argus's flag, not an invented quote.
Figures follow Argus. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.