BC Insight estimates an additional 1.2 million tonnes of Kazakh stockpiled sulfur was sold during 2024, pushing exports to record levels mainly via rail across Russia to Ust-Luga near St Petersburg. Inventory sales were expected to end in 2025, allowing exports to fall back toward about 3.5 million tonnes a year from 2026. The Central Asia feature is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2025/01/31/sulphur-in-central-asia-2/.
Ust-Luga is a Baltic loader. Kazakh recovered sulfur that cannot cross Russia cannot use it. Roszheldor's May 2026 halt and Kazakhstan's June 2026 export suspension are the later lock. October 2024 is the record-export year via that rail.
Morocco took about 73 percent of 2024 Kazakh sales. Other African countries 12 percent. OCP's Jorf complex is the bid. A 1.2 million tonne stock sale into Morocco is a 2024 phosphate-feed event. It is also 2026's missing tonnes when the rail stops.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Extra Kazakh tonnes into Morocco in a surplus year competed with Canadian solids and with Saudi programme draws of about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter. Tampa $76 in early July, USGS, is the Florida price of that competition. Vancouver FOB $78 January-July is the Pacific price.
Tengiz output toward 2.65 million tonnes in 2024 plus 1.2 million tonnes of stock is the 4.02 million tonne year-to-October export path BC Insight also cited, up 35 percent. FGP does not add sulfur. Wellhead Management did, slightly. Pad did the rest.
CRU's contrast stands: Canada remelt is price-driven. This 1.2 million tonnes is programme-driven. When 2025 tightness arrived, Canadian remelt could accelerate. Kazakh pad would be gone. When 2026 transit bans arrived, even the 3.5 million tonne normalization could not sail.
USGS listed Kazakhstan at 6 percent of US elemental imports for 2021-24. Direct US exposure is secondary. Morocco exposure is primary. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
Figures follow BC Insight.