BC Insight's November 2024 inventory essay contrasts Canada's remelt, accelerating when Vancouver FOB clears high logistics costs, with Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia stock draws that continued through the lower-price surplus period for regulatory and storage-capacity reasons. The piece is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/11/30/sulphur-inventory-availability-and-pricing/.
That contrast is the Alberta-lens sentence of 2024. Export-chain costs often cited above $150 per tonne meant 2024's $78 January-July Vancouver FOB average did not flip the provincial pile the way 2025's $238 would. De-blocking still occurred where forming capacity existed, South Cheecham after May, Heartland's later 2025 expansion. It did not run as a forced programme.
Kashagan's about 0.25 million tonnes a quarter and Saudi's about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter are the inelastic extras. Together they can add about 1.6 million tonnes a year of seaborne sulfur that FOB did not summon. CRU described the market since late 2022 as a global surplus with lower prices, even while those draws ran. Canada's remelt was the clearest price-elastic supply heading into 2025 tightness.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Provincial stock in the derived 2024 mid-year neighbourhood near 12 million tonnes, AER-linked July 2025 at 11.66 million tonnes, is the pad that waits. Syncrude-area blocks above 10 million tonnes until November 2025 are the site-level pad. Price is the switch. Programmes in Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia are not.
Tampa $69 open, $81 March, $76 July, $116 Q4, USGS MCS 2025, is the Florida path through the surplus. Q4 $116 is when Canadian remelt economics start to look interesting. 2025 $270 April is when they look compulsory.
Morocco taking 73 percent of 2024 Kazakh sales is the destination that inelastic Kazakh tonnes went. Vancouver's China 1.66 million tonnes and August 180,000 tonne China month are where Canadian price-elastic tonnes went when FOB allowed. Two origins, two reasons for moving, one seaborne price.
2026 transit bans would remove the inelastic Kazakh path. Hormuz would remove the Saudi loading path. Canada's price-elastic remelt would remain. November 2024 is the essay that explains why that remaining path matters.
Figures follow CRU and BC Insight. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.