CRU explained Saudi Arabia's about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter stock-draw exports as a response to storage nearing capacity, reducing the strategic benefit of holding logistics-buffer inventory. Extra Gulf tonnes competed with Canadian and Kazakh solids into soft-price markets. The November 2024 inventory essay is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/11/30/sulphur-inventory-availability-and-pricing/.
Storage-capacity draws are not FOB-driven remelt. They are pad that must leave because the tank or the block yard is full. CRU's contrast with Canada is the point: Canadian remelt waits for Vancouver FOB to clear more than $150 per tonne of chain cost. Saudi extra tonnes left through the surplus anyway.
Zero point one five million tonnes a quarter is 0.6 million tonnes a year, smaller than Kashagan's 0.25 million tonnes a quarter, still enough to weigh on a market USGS put at $46.42 US unit-value in 2024. Middle East OSPs in the desk's 2024 narrative drifted with May Qatar QSP at $125 by September after a soft first half. Extra Saudi programme tonnes are part of that first-half weight.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Extra Gulf solids into China, 9.95 million tonnes of Chinese imports in 2024, UAE first origin at 1.70 million tonnes, Saudi 1.13 million, are the competition Canadian 1.66 million tonnes of Chinese imports faced. A surplus with three origins drawing stock is a $78 January-July Vancouver FOB year.
USGS MCS 2025 flagged Middle East refining upgrades to lift sulfur supply from 2025, and HPAL demand to lift consumption. The November 2024 Saudi storage story is 2024's extra supply. 2025's deficit is those extras fading plus demand, until 2026 closed the loading door those upgrades needed.
Tampa $76 in early July and $116 in Q4, USGS, is the Florida path through this surplus-plus-late-firming. Phosphate plants that bought cheap Gulf and Kazakh tonnes in 2024 are the plants that would ration in 2026 when those tonnes could not sail.
The strategic benefit of holding a logistics buffer falls when storage is full. That sentence is CRU's. The desk will not invent a Saudi policy quote beyond it.
Figures follow CRU. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.