CRU estimated Kazakhstan's Kashagan-linked stock-removal programme raised exports by about 0.25 million tonnes per quarter, with total inventory expected to be depleted by mid-2025. The end of forced draws was expected to let Kazakh exports normalize near 3.5 million tonnes a year from 2026, before 2026 transit bans intervened. The November inventory essay is at https://www.bcinsight.crugroup.com/2024/11/30/sulphur-inventory-availability-and-pricing/.
A quarter-million tonnes a quarter is 1 million tonnes a year of extra seaborne sulfur that is not 2026 Claus recovery. It is pad leaving because a programme says it must. CRU contrasted that with Canada's remelt, which accelerates when Vancouver FOB clears high logistics costs. Kashagan draw is not price-elastic in the same way.
BC Insight estimated an additional 1.2 million tonnes of Kazakh stockpiled sulfur was sold during 2024, pushing exports to record levels mainly via rail across Russia to Ust-Luga near St Petersburg. Morocco took about 73 percent of 2024 Kazakh sales, other African countries 12 percent. That destination concentration later magnified 2026 damage when Roszheldor halted the rail.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Extra Kazakh tonnes into Morocco in 2024 competed with Canadian and Gulf solids into a surplus market. Tampa at $76 per long ton in early July and $116 in the fourth quarter, USGS, is the Florida price of that surplus plus a late firming. Vancouver FOB averaging $78 January-July is the Pacific price.
Tengiz Wellhead Management lifted 2024 sulfur toward 2.65 million tonnes after 2.4 million in 2023. FGP oil gains due 2025 reinject associated gas and do not add sulfur sales. The 3.5 million tonne a year normalization CRU expected from 2026 was Tengiz plus other Kazakh recovery without the 1.2 million tonne stock sale. Transit bans made even that 3.5 million tonne path a closed door.
Saudi stock-location near capacity drove about 0.15 million tonnes a quarter of extra Gulf exports in the same CRU essay. Extra Gulf tonnes plus extra Kazakh tonnes plus Canadian de-blocking into a surplus is why 2024 stayed soft until the fourth-quarter turn. 2025's 1.9 million tonne deficit is those forced draws ending plus HPAL demand plus phosphate, before Hormuz.
The mid-2025 Kashagan finish date is CRU's November 2024 working view. The desk will not treat it as a 2026 guarantee. Roszheldor and Order No. 1363 are later facts. November 2024 is the programme clock.
Figures follow CRU and BC Insight. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.