USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 reports Tampa, Florida contract sulfur began 2025 at $116 per long ton before climbing to $270 per long ton in early April, easing to $252 per long ton in early July, then reaching $310 per long ton in early October. Fourth-quarter 2025 prices were the highest since the second quarter of 2022. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf.
The 15 January desk item is the year-open. $116 per long ton follows a 2024 path that opened at $69, rose to $81 in March and the second quarter, eased to $76 in early July, then jumped to $116 in the fourth quarter. 2025 opens where 2024 closed. The bull market is the rest of the year, not the first print.
Average US elemental sulfur unit value would jump to about $180 per tonne for 2025 from $46.42 in 2024. All-forms production would slip to 8.1 million tonnes. Apparent consumption to 9.1 million. World output 84 million, unchanged. Canada 5.0 million tonnes 2025e. The January $116 contract sits on that later annual frame as the starting price, not the average.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. 2024 Vancouver FOB averaged only $78 in January-July. 2025's $238 January-July average, more than triple, is the Pacific solid that this Tampa open would run beside. January 2025 is the last month the desk can treat as a continuation of 2024's late firming rather than as a new year.
CRU's 1.9 million tonne 2025 deficit is not yet a January headline. It is how the year will be remembered. January-February Vancouver loadings of 621,000 tonnes, up 17 percent, are the first volume confirmation that Pacific solids were already moving into a firmer book, China 278,000 tonnes of that two-month stem.
Canada at 53 percent of US elemental imports is the molten-rail story under a $116 Tampa open. A contract that will be $270 by April and $310 by October is a contract that will pull on that Canadian share and on Alberta remelt. Heartland had not yet expanded. Provincial inventory had not yet printed 11.66 million tonnes. The open is the permission.
2022's $481 April peak remains the cycle high. USGS's note that fourth-quarter 2025 was the highest since the second quarter of 2022 is a ranking, not a claim that 2025 matched 2022. The recovery year starts at $116. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
The 2026 Tampa Q3 $705 record is a later Argus open-news item at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. January 2025 does not know it.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2026.