USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 tracks Tampa contract sulfur rising from $116 per long ton at the start of 2025 to $270 per long ton in early April, the first major step of the 2025 bull market that later peaked near $310 per long ton in October. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf.
One hundred and fifty-four dollars per long ton in three months is the spring reprice. It is not 2022's $481 peak. It is the exit from 2024's $69 year-open and $116 fourth-quarter neighbourhood. Fourth-quarter 2025 would be the highest since the second quarter of 2022. April is the first step, not the last.
January-February Vancouver solid exports of 621,000 tonnes, up 17 percent, with China at 278,000 tonnes, already showed Pacific volumes responding before this Tampa print. The January-July FOB average of $238 would confirm that Pacific solids were in the same tightening. Two hubs, one spring.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Canadian molten that rails south watches Tampa. A $270 contract raises that molten bid and, through basis, the remelt bid on Alberta block. Export-process costs above $150 per tonne start to clear when both Tampa and Vancouver FOB sit in the $200s.
Apparent US consumption heading toward 9.1 million tonnes for the year, USGS 2025e, is a lighter demand base than 2023's 10.2 million. A $270 contract on lighter demand is tightness, CRU's later 1.9 million tonne deficit, not a consumption boom. Phosphate affordability is already the question inside the first step.
Canada at 53 percent of US elemental imports is the supply that this contract prices. Iraq at 6 percent and Kazakhstan at 6 percent are the later-impaired slices. April 2025 still has those slices on the water. Astrakhan and Hormuz are ahead.
World production 84 million tonnes, essentially unchanged. The $270 print is tradeable surplus tightening, metals plus fertilizer, not a US Claus outage. US all-forms output would slip only to 8.1 million tonnes for the year.
The July dip to $252 and the October $310 are the rest of the USGS path. The 2026 $705 Q3 print is a later Argus open-news item at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. April 2025 is the first step only.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2026. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.