CRU later summarized nickel-related acid demand in Indonesia surging to about 16 million tonnes a year in 2025 from 3.5 million tonnes a year in 2021, with sulfur-burnt acid the main domestic source and acid imports still needed at about 1.0 million tonnes in 2025, a 47 percent compound annual growth rate since 2021. The thought-leadership note is at https://www.crugroup.com/en/communities/thought-leadership/2026/CRU-launches-Indonesia-acid-price-as-nickel-sector-lifts-demand/.
High-pressure acid leach nickel does not follow a Florida planting calendar. It follows autoclave uptime. A 16 million tonne acid market built in four years is a structural sulfur-unit bid. Sulfur-burnt acid means elemental sulfur imported and burned. Acid imports of 1.0 million tonnes are the residual that Chinese seaborne acid, 4.65 million tonnes exported in 2025, had been filling.
Vancouver's January-July 2025 Indonesia receipts slipped 23 percent even so. A booming Indonesian acid market and a slipping Vancouver destination can coexist if Indonesia burned more Middle East sulfur and imported more Chinese acid. CRU's later 76 percent 2025 Middle East dependence for Indonesian sulfur is that origin concentration. Vancouver is the Pacific alternative, not yet the default.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. A 16 million tonne Indonesian acid path is why metals demand was cited as a medium-term floor even if phosphate affordability softened. Argus named Indonesian sulfur burners as support for the $305-310 FOB in early October. The June CRU frame is that bid's size.
China's 2025 acid-export flood of 4.65 million tonnes, up 73 percent, competed with elemental burners. The 2026 acid-export halt reversed it and left HPAL plants short seaborne acid. ENC's late-June 2026 on-site acid plant is a local answer. The 2025 16 million tonne path is why that answer had to be built.
Tampa at $270 per long ton in early April and $252 in early July, USGS, is the phosphate contract. Indonesian HPAL is not a Tampa buyer. The connection is sulfur units. When both phosphate and nickel bid, Alberta forming plants sell to whoever clears FOB. In January-July 2025, Brazil and Cuba cleared more Vancouver tonnes than Indonesia did.
World sulfur output at 84 million tonnes in MCS 2026 does not isolate Indonesian acid. Tradeable elemental sulfur into IMIP and other Sulawesi parks is a slice of seaborne trade, not of world Claus nameplate. The 47 percent CAGR on acid imports from a small base is the slice that grew.
Figures follow CRU. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.