USGS notes Tampa contract sulfur eased to $252 per long ton in early July 2025 after the April $270 per long ton print, then resumed climbing to $310 per long ton by early October. Average US elemental sulfur unit value for 2025 was estimated at about $180 per tonne versus $46.42 per tonne in 2024. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf.
The July dip is the mid-year pause in a bull year, not a return to 2024. Tampa opened 2025 at $116 per long ton. $252 is still more than double that open. Fourth-quarter prices would be the highest since the second quarter of 2022. July is the trough between April and October on the USGS path.
Vancouver FOB averaged $238 per tonne through July, more than triple the prior-year $78. Pacific solid did not pause with Florida molten in the same way, or the January-July average would not sit near the July Tampa print. Two hubs, two calendars. Phosphate planting and metals buying do not share a month.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through Vancouver. Provincial inventory at 11.66 million tonnes in July, the lowest since May 2019, printed in the same month as Tampa's $252. Remelt economics were already clearing on Vancouver FOB. A Florida dip does not pour Alberta block back to pad.
Apparent US consumption at 9.1 million tonnes in 2025e, down from 10.2 million in 2023, is why a $252 contract can still be a pause rather than a floor collapse. Demand was already lighter. The autumn spike to $310 is metals and fertilizer restock on a deficit CRU put near 1.9 million tonnes.
Canada at 53 percent of US elemental imports remains the molten-rail story under Tampa. A July dip to $252 is a cheaper month to buy Canadian molten. October at $310 is a more expensive month. The USGS path is the contract those tonnes watch.
World production 84 million tonnes, essentially unchanged. The $252 print is not a supply glut. It is a mid-year contract print on a tightening year. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.
The 2026 Tampa Q3 $705 record is a later Argus open-news item at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt. It is not this July 2025 dip.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2026.