Argus estimated September 2025 Vancouver exports near 386,000 tonnes, which would lift January-September loadings to about 2.73 million tonnes, up 11 percent, or 267,269 tonnes year on year, as metals demand and fertilizer buying supported elevated FOB prices near $305-310 per tonne in early October. The open-news item is at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2738944-vancouver-sulfur-exports-down-on-year-in-aug.
August had fallen 5 percent year on year to 304,675 tonnes as buyers resisted elevated prices early in the third quarter. A 386,000 tonne September estimate is a rebound month, not a new annual run-rate by itself. Twelve times 386,000 would be 4.63 million tonnes, above any VFPA year on the tape. The desk will wait for the port's own month before treating 386,000 as verified_public. Argus's estimate is industry_estimate.
January-July had already printed 2.04 million tonnes, up nearly 5 percent. Adding August's 304,675 gives about 2.35 million through eight months, up 3 percent. The September estimate is what would take the nine-month total to 2.73 million and the year-on-year gap to 11 percent. Full-year VFPA later confirmed 3,507,428 tonnes, up 5 percent, which is consistent with a strong September and a less heroic fourth quarter.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through this stem. A 386,000 tonne month is a remelt-and-rail month. Provincial stock at 11.66 million tonnes in July, Heartland remelt at 700 tonnes a day, and FOB at $305-310 are the three numbers that make that month possible. Forming saturation is the reason it cannot be every month.
Metals demand, including Indonesian sulfur burners, is the bid Argus named. CRU later put nickel-related Indonesian acid demand near 16 million tonnes a year in 2025. January-July Indonesia receipts from Vancouver had still slipped 23 percent. A named bid and a slipped destination can coexist if other origins filled Indonesia and Vancouver filled Brazil, Cuba, and the United States instead.
Seasonal fertilizer buying is the other named bid. Tampa at $310 per long ton in early October, USGS, is the Florida fertilizer print. Vancouver at $305-310 FOB is the Pacific solid print. Both are autumn 2025 tightness, before Astrakhan's ban and before Hormuz.
China's 133,907 tonnes in August and December's Chinese import drop to 422,400 tonnes nationally are the demand-risk on the other side of a 386,000 tonne September estimate. A stem that can swing to Brazil and the US is less fragile than a stem that only serves one Chinese tender calendar.
Figures follow Argus estimates and the later VFPA annual confirmation. Licensed weekly grids are not restated.