USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 reports that Tampa, Florida contract sulfur began 2025 at $116 per long ton, rose to $270 per long ton in early April, eased to $252 per long ton in early July, then reached $310 per long ton in early October 2025. Fourth-quarter 2025 prices were the highest since the second quarter of 2022. The PDF is at https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2026/mcs2026-sulfur.pdf.
Average US elemental sulfur unit value jumped to an estimated $180 per tonne in 2025 from $46.42 per tonne in 2024. The unit-value is an annual US average. The Tampa path is the Florida phosphate contract. Both describe the same tightening. Neither is a licensed weekly grid redistributed here.
The April $270 print is the first major step of the 2025 bull market. The July $252 dip is the mid-year pause. The October $310 print is the autumn spike that USGS says made the fourth quarter the strongest since the second quarter of 2022. 2022's cycle peak, Tampa near $481 per long ton in early April that year, remains higher. 2025 is a recovery year, not a 2022 replica.
CRU estimated a 1.9 million tonne global deficit in 2025. Vancouver FOB averaged $238 per tonne in January-July, triple 2024's $78, and printed $305-310 on 2 October. Middle East spot finished near $505-525 FOB. Tampa at $310 delivered molten is below those solid FOB ideas, as molten domestic and solid export often are. The gap is the 2025 version of the 2026 $705 versus $1,100 split, smaller and earlier.
Alberta recovered sulfur still leaves mainly through the Vancouver stem. A Tampa path from $116 to $310 raises the value of Canadian molten that rails south. USGS put Canada at 53 percent of US elemental imports for 2021-24. It also raises remelt economics on Alberta block. AER-linked provincial stock printed 11.66 million tonnes in July, the lowest since May 2019.
Apparent US consumption at 9.1 million tonnes, down from 10.2 million in 2023, says the $310 contract arrived on a lighter demand base. Phosphate affordability is already the 2026 question. The 2025 USGS path is the runway.
Russian export restrictions began in late 2025. They are the year-end tightness USGS notes, not the October $310 print, which predates the most-cited Astrakhan timing. Metals demand, including Indonesian sulfur burners, and the deficit CRU named are the October explanation.
World production 84 million tonnes versus 83.9 million in 2024. US all-forms 8.1 million versus 8.32 million. The Tampa climb is tradeable tightness, not a US Claus collapse.
Figures follow USGS MCS 2026. The 2026 Tampa Q3 $705 print is a later Argus open-news item at https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2851577-tampa-3q-liquid-sulphur-price-hits-record-705-lt and is not this 15 October 2025 story.